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The latest projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released earlier this week indicate that the UK’s population will hit close to 74 million by 2036. Over 90% of this increase of 6.6 million people is attributed to net migration, which is expected to bring in over six million people in the 15-year period to 2036. Breaking it down:
- 10.8 million people will be born
- 10.3 million people will die
- 13.7 million people will immigrate to the UK
- 7.6 million people will emigrate
According to these projections, and to give you a sense of scale, immigration will lead to a population increase equal to five cities the size of Birmingham – practically a new city every three years. What does this mean for public infrastructure like schools, hospitals, housing, roads, and transportation? Our analysis paints a stark picture. Five new Birminghams will require:
- 2,225 new schools
- 45 new hospitals
- 25 universities
- 880 GP surgeries
- 2,595 new roads, and
- 55 further education colleges
These figures are troubling on their own, but the actual situation could well be even bleaker. The ONS, on the advice of experts is working on the basis of net migration falling to an annual average of 315,000 from 2028. We have serious doubts about this projection, even if there are fewer Ukrainians and Hong Kongers arriving. Although we should also consider how Ukrainians will react at the end of the conflict. What will be left for Ukrainians here to go back to? Might those here, rather than returning to Ukraine not, instead, be joined by family they have left behind? As for Hong Kong, let’s not forget that the invitation to over three million people to come and settle here is open-ended.
There are also both the known and unknown unknowns. Five years ago, few people would have imagined the events that give rise to the vast movement of people from places like Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong. Before that it was Syrians. What mass movement of people is going to be spawned by drought, poverty, conflict and chaos in sub-Saharan Africa?
The three main migration routes for work, study and family are now out of control. There is little constraint on big business importing as much cheaper labour as it wants. Similarly, the universities have, more or less, a free hand to offer places to as many overseas students, who pay much higher fees, as they wish. We know that overseas students can be here for five, six, seven years or longer. A significant proportion will never leave. And then there’s family and family migration, where earnings and language thresholds are ludicrously low.
All in all, we don’t see how see net migration could fall to 315,000, itself a historically high net figure.
This is a preview of Migration Watch’s free weekly newsletter. Please consider signing up to the newsletter directly, you can do so here and will receive an email copy of the newsletter every Friday as soon as it is released.