Dodgy Official Projection That Uk Population Will Grow By Just Seven Million Over 40 Years


Has the ONS got its projections wrong?

The population projections for the UK issued by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last month are, to say the least, deeply flawed. They suggest a rate of population growth over the next twenty years that is half that of the last twenty years. Here is their population projection:  a population of 74 million by 2060, increasing by seven million from the 67 million of 2020. There is no plausible explanation given, which makes us wonder if there is some deliberate obfuscation going on. See our summary.  

The basis of the projection is net migration of 245,000per year from 2026/27 onwards, this has been about the average annual level since 2000. What, it appears, is not taken into account is the vast loosening of the immigration system when the points-based system was introduced two years ago, which ushered in the wholesale enfeebling of work, study and dependant visa routes. Nor, it seems, have the ONS factored in the high numbers who have come from Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan. And there is no evidence that the flow from these parts of the world will diminish. And no sign of the war in Ukraine (which has led to 190,000 people coming here in the past year) ending anytime soon. While the Hong Kong path to settlement scheme, available to over 3.5 million people, is open-ended (more than 100,000 people having come via the route since 2021). No doubt, there will also be millions of people from other parts of the world, where life is difficult, who will seek refuge here.

Glossed over too, it seems, is the eight million increase in the population – all down to immigration and children born to immigrants – of the past 20 years or so, when annual net migration averaged around a quarter of a million people. Indeed, net migration reached more than double(504,000)the ONS’s projected 245,000 in the year to June 2022.

The government has also committed to taking thousands more people from Afghanistan (even with thousands already living around the UK in hotels). While illegal boat arrivals are expected to increase significantly from the nearly 46,000 that came during 2022. 

Some claim that the flow of illegal journeys across the Channel is prompted by an absence of safe and legal routes, overlooking the fact that a third of a million refugees came here in the most recent year. Here’s our recent paper on this.   

The suggestion that immigration levels will fall seems to be utter pie in the sky. Unless dramatic and necessary measures are taken, mass, uncontrolled immigration will continue unabated.

What is especially concerning is that  seriously flawed statistics will be widely used, for example, to ascertain fiscal projections and planning for our future housing needs, health and care provision, allocation of resources for education, transport, communication and pensions. This is no way to run our country.

Blog of the week

The electorate must have all the facts if they are to judge politicians’ performance in office. How else can (any) government be held to account? And yet, on immigration, the facts flowing from official sources are often incomplete, inadequate and even ‘experimental’. This is not how democracy should be served. Transparency and accountability  are essential elements of the democratic process. An example of what amounts to a questionable decision decision being taken by officialdom was the way  the ONS scrapped elements of the well-established International Passenger Survey (IPS), on which immigration figures had been based for decades, before having a reliable system with which to replace it. See our full blog here

Migration Watch in the news

GB News: Alp speaks to Nigel Farage about the murder of an 87 year old woman by a failed asylum seeker

‘It happens time after time again, what we have in place is this web of rules and obstacles and laws that prevent people from acting on common sense.’

GB News: Asylum seekers receive staggering £160MILLION in payments on UK debit card – EXCLUSIVE

We now know that in addition to accommodation and free dental and medical attention, a further £160 million was handed to asylum seekers through the Aspen debit card system.

This is because all asylum seekers awaiting a decision on their claims are each entitled to £40.85 a week. That is £1.6billion over 10 years.

Putting it another way, it would pay the salaries of around 4,000 nurses for a whole year.

Express: Foreign killers and rapists hiding in UK ‘for years’, investigation reveals

“The apparent ease with which wanted criminals are now able to enter the UK is a disgrace.

“We appear to have border control in name only, with greater concern being shown for the smooth flow of arrivals.”

The Epoch Times: UK Adopts New Rules to Tackle Abuse of Modern Slavery Laws by Illegal Immigrants

“What these remarkable data show is that Albanians and their traffickers have identified a huge loophole in our legislation and are exploiting it to the hilt. Their gaming of the system is adding massively to the great pressure that the already overwhelmed system is under. The government has no option but to plug this gaping hole, and do it quickly.”

Make your voice heard

Our Home Secretary seems to us to be serious about controlling the border and also in tackling mass immigration flows (although, there’s no evidence yet of how she will deal with the latter) . She warned her colleagues  this week that a failure to control the Channel crisis will result in election meltdown for their party. She is right. Her party promised to deliver ‘firmer control’. But the opposite has happened. It is now easier for those in 80% of the world’s countries to come here and work. Study visas are now handed out like sweets. On top of that we have record numbers of family visa grants.

To all those who have written to their MP over uncontrolled, mass immigration, weakened enforcement and the Channel chaos—thank you. The penny seems to be dropping, why not help it on its way by writing to your MP here. 

3rd February 2023 - Newsletters

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