An analysis of the Office for National Statistics’ estimates of population change, year-ending June 2025.
The Office for National Statistics estimates that the population of England and Wales reached 62,009,993 by mid‑2025, an increase of 224,874 on the previous year. That is growth of about 0.36%.
| 94% of population growth in England and Wales came from net international migration | –26,737 London’s population change; the only English region to shrink | 124% share of West Midlands population change attributable to migration |
Migration continues to be nearly the whole of population growth
Of the 224,874 additional residents, net international migration contributed 211,691. Natural change (births minus deaths) added just 19,624. Net internal migration to the rest of the United Kingdom removed 5,940, and statistical adjustments a further 501. Net international migration therefore accounts for 94% of total population change.
England’s figures, as the most populous-nation, are where this national trend is most visible. Its population reached 58,834,812, up 227,642, of which net international migration supplied 210,034 (92%). Natural change contributed 28,792, and England lost 10,816 people on net to the rest of the United Kingdom.
Had net international migration been zero, England and Wales would have grown by roughly 13,000 people — a rate of about 0.02%. Everything above that line is migration.
This is not a one‑year anomaly. It reflects a structural change in British demography: the natural surplus that drove population growth for most of the post‑war period has effectively disappeared. Births now barely exceed deaths nationally, and in most regions they no longer do. Whatever the merits of any particular immigration policy, the arithmetic is now unambiguous: the size of the population is determined by decisions about visas rather than by demographic momentum.
What follows, and the implications
Three conclusions follow from these figures.
- First, population growth in England and Wales is now a direct function of immigration policy. The relationship between net migration and population change is close to one‑to‑one, which means that any target for population size or growth is, in practice, a visa policy question rather than a demographic forecast.
- Second, infrastructure planning based on net population change at local level will systematically misjudge demand. Birmingham lost 5,960 residents while receiving 26,920 arrivals. Housing need, school places and health provision in that authority cannot be inferred from the first number. Local authorities should be planning against gross flows, and the arrivals and departures data now published at regional level should be extended to districts so that they can.
- Third, the redistribution effect deserves explicit attention. Growth in the shires and on the coast is largely composed of people leaving the cities that are receiving the largest international inflows. Whether that movement reflects housing costs, school preference, congestion or something else is not answerable from these statistics; but its scale, at 131,961 net departures from London alone, makes it one of the most significant demographic movements currently underway in Britain, and one that receives a small fraction of the attention given to the net migration headline.
The scale behind the net figure
Net figures materially understate the volume of movement. 816,535 people arrived in England and Wales from abroad during the year and 604,844 left: 1.42 million border crossings, equivalent to 2.3% of the resident population, producing a net gain of 211,691. Arrivals alone came to 363% of total population change, and to just under the population of Leeds, England’s second‑largest local authority district, over twelve months.
The ratio of arrivals to net population change runs from 158% in the Eastern region to 410% in Yorkshire and the Humber, where 63,934 arrivals and 48,762 departures resolved into a population change of 15,595.
The distinction matters for anyone planning services. School places, GP registrations, housing turnover, English‑language provision and local authority caseloads respond to arrivals and departures, not to the net residual left after the two are subtracted. Planning to the net figure systematically understates the demands actually placed on local infrastructure.
Wales is shrinking
Wales lost 2,768 residents, falling to 3,175,181. Its natural change was –9,168; deaths exceeding births by a substantial margin. Internal migration from England added 4,876 and net international migration 1,657. Without those two inflows, Wales’ decline would have been more than three times steeper.
The decline is broadly spread. Swansea fell by 1,165 and Cardiff by 512, despite Cardiff recording much the largest gross international inflow in Wales at 7,587. Rural authorities are close to static (Powys down 12, Conwy down 14, Ceredigion down 30) while the former industrial valleys continue to contract, with Merthyr Tydfil down 360 and Blaenau Gwent down 119. Wales illustrates in miniature what England’s trajectory would look like without international migration on the present scale.
Seven regions, two different countries
| Region | Population change | Natural change | Net internal migration | Net international migration | International as % of change |
| North East | 13,998 | –5,452 | 7,439 | 12,201 | 87% |
| North West | 56,748 | –1,928 | 23,771 | 34,627 | 61% |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 15,595 | –2,401 | 3,265 | 15,172 | 97% |
| East Midlands | 25,401 | –4,263 | 13,623 | 15,550 | 61% |
| West Midlands | 24,221 | 3,247 | –9,330 | 30,051 | 124% |
| Eastern | 42,771 | 357 | 25,154 | 17,595 | 41% |
| London | –26,737 | 54,211 | –131,961 | 51,839 | –194% |
| England | 227,642 | 28,792 | –10,816 | 210,034 | 92% |
The South East and South West are not itemised in the source workbook. As residuals they account for 75,645 of England’s population change, 32,999 of its net international migration and 57,223 of its net internal migration, against a combined natural deficit of 14,979. The South West records the lowest net international migration of any English region, at 11,311, which puts the South East at 21,688.
Two facts stand out:
- First, London is the only English region to have lost population (down 26,737) despite receiving the largest international inflow of any region and by far the largest natural surplus, at 54,211.
- Second, the West Midlands is the only region where net international migration exceeded total population change, at 124%. Its population would have fallen without it.
The North West grew most in absolute terms of any English region, adding 56,748 residents, split between internal migration of 23,771 and international migration of 34,627 against a small natural deficit. Of the regions itemised above, the Eastern region is the least migration‑dependent, at 41%, and the only one where internal migration exceeded international migration. Outside London, the six other regions in the table recorded a combined natural change of –10,440. London alone recorded +54,211. Strip out the capital and England’s births no longer replace its deaths.
London as a redistribution engine
London received 234,612 international arrivals, roughly 29% of the England and Wales total, from about 15% of its population, and a net international gain of 51,839. Over the same period it lost 131,961 people on net to the rest of the United Kingdom. Its net internal loss was more than two and a half times its net international gain.
The capital now functions as a point of entry rather than a place of settlement for a large share of arrivals. Overseas migrants concentrate in inner and outer London; existing residents move out to the Home Counties, the South West and beyond. Every inner London borough lost population over the year with two exceptions, Wandsworth and the City of London, each of which grew by fewer than 140 people. Southwark fell by 4,692, Lambeth by 4,566, Camden by 3,900, Westminster by 3,327 and Newham by 2,937, the last on a net internal outflow of 16,235. This is what makes London’s –194% figure in Figure 3 misleading if read carelessly: the capital received more international migrants than anywhere else in the country while its population fell.
The same pattern in the major cities
The London pattern repeats across England’s largest urban authorities. Birmingham recorded the largest population fall of any local authority district in England and Wales, down 5,960. It did so while receiving 26,920 international arrivals — the highest of any district — posting a net international gain of 9,703 and a natural surplus of 6,186, because 21,850 more people left for elsewhere in the UK than arrived from it.
Manchester took 19,418 arrivals for a net international gain of 8,165 and a natural surplus of 3,378, yet ended the year 341 people smaller after a net internal outflow of 11,814. Leicester fell by 3,639, Coventry by 3,941, Nottingham by 4,796 and Luton by 1,667. Each combines a substantial international gain with a larger internal outflow — from 1.9 times the international gain in Luton to 3.1 times in Nottingham. Bradford, Leeds, Sheffield and Liverpool all shrank on the same pattern.
These are not declining cities in the traditional sense. Natural change is positive in nearly all of them and international arrivals are running at high levels. They are cities experiencing exceptionally high population churn, in which the composition of the resident population changes far faster than its size. That churn is invisible in headline population figures and is precisely what those figures are least able to capture.
Where growth is domestic
The counterpart to urban outflow is growth in the shires and on the coast, almost entirely from internal migration. Essex grew by 17,197, of which 13,590 was internal. Lancashire added 16,128, Warwickshire 11,019, Leicestershire 7,971 and Derbyshire 6,304: in each case with internal migration accounting for the large majority, and in Derbyshire’s case exceeding total growth against a natural deficit of 2,263.
The pattern is starkest in rural and coastal England. Cornwall grew by 2,577 despite a natural change of –2,985 and a net international migration figure of –583, the lowest of any district: its entire increase, and more, came from 6,049 net internal arrivals. Lincolnshire grew by 3,476 on internal migration of 6,898 with net international migration of just 63. The East Riding of Yorkshire grew by 4,956 while losing 222 people to international migration.
England therefore divides into two kinds of place: districts whose growth is international, and districts whose growth is domestic redistribution, with the second group’s gains drawn substantially from the first. Neither group is well described by the national statistic that combines them.
Source: Office for National Statistics, mid‑year population estimates, year ending June 2025. Maps created with Datawrapper; map data © Crown copyright and database right 2018 / ONS Geography.
