Beware The Burnhamwave

Britain is still living with the consequences of the “Boriswave”: the unprecedented surge in migration produced by Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit immigration system. Net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year to March 2023. Although it subsequently fell to 171,000 in 2025, gross immigration remained at 813,000, hardly evidence that the pressure has disappeared. Now, Andy Burnham’s government risks putting the Boriswave on steroids. Call it the Burnhamwave.

The Boriswave was spearheaded by the disastrous Health and Social Care visa, which saw hundreds of thousands of low skilled, low paid migrants come to Britain. The Burnhamwave is like a Hydra, with every closed immigration route seeing another two open up.

The Government is creating separate sponsorship routes through which community groups, universities and employers can bring refugees to Britain. These will operate alongside the existing UK Resettlement Scheme. Crucially, people admitted through these approved routes will be placed on a five-year path to permanent settlement, much faster than the new ten-year default announced by the Home Secretary earlier this week.

(Let us not forget: Only 18 percent of individual respondents to the Home Office settlement consultation were British citizens; 73 percent were current visa holders. The Home Office itself cautioned that this self-selecting exercise was not representative of the public, but gave in anyway. Spineless!)

Meanwhile, the Chancellor promises Europe’s “most pro-business migration system” for highly skilled workers. Last week’s Budget expands the High Potential Individual visa to graduates from the world’s top 150 institutions, restores a two-year Graduate visa for selected universities and proposes regionally adjusted salary requirements. Lower regional thresholds will, inevitably, make it easier for businesses to recruit migrant labour. The independent Migration Advisory Committee warned that such thresholds would be complex, difficult to enforce and risk institutionalising parts of Britain as low-wage regions.

Then there is the European “reset”. A new youth experience scheme would provide a dedicated route allowing young Europeans to work, study or travel in Britain, subject to parameters still under negotiation. Britain is also rejoining Erasmus+, costing British taxpayers some £570 million to reduce fees for European migrant students. The Home Office acknowledges that this will increase use of student, visitor and government-authorised exchange routes.

Worst of all is the retreat on settlement. Care workers earning £25,000 and certain health and education workers already here will retain five-year routes. The Home Office forecasts 1.9 million settlement grants between 2026 and 2030 without reform and 1.4 million even after its revised measures.

Migration Watch previously estimated that the 2020–24 work-visa cohorts alone could generate roughly 384,000 settlement grants between 2025 and 2029. Our Chairman also warned Parliament that focusing solely on falling net migration obscures gross inflows and the number requiring housing, services and integration. Adding 750,000 people to the population requires roughly 300,000 homes, yet housebuilding has fallen to record lows. The UK population has grown by almost ten million since 2001, largely due to migration, and in the last five years almost entirely due to migration.  Yet, there have been no new reservoirs built in England since 1992. Our politicians warn of housing crises and water shortages, yet add hundreds of thousands of immigrants requiring homes and water to our population every year.

Britain needs firm annual caps, higher salary thresholds and a system that trains and employs people already here. Instead, Mr Burnham and his Home Secretary are multiplying entry routes while accelerating settlement for favoured groups. The Burnhamwave is gathering, and ordinary Britons will bear its cost.