On 28 April 2026, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its 2024-based National Population Projections, a 100-year modelling projection covering the UK and its constituent countries.
While of course any projections for such an extended period of time are highly speculative, the immediate projection for the next 10 to 30 years are instructive: should migration continue on the trajectory of recent years, Britain’s population is set to explode to 70 million by 2033.
This is a possibility about which Migration Watch has warned since the late-2000s. Indeed, in 2008, we pointed out that “It is quite clear that the [Points-Based System] in its present form will not, of itself, be remotely enough to keep the population of the UK below 70 million.” Likewise, in 2010, we argued that “currently projected levels of immigration will cause the population of the UK to reach 70 million shortly after 2031 and then go on growing.”
This paper analyses the key findings, with particular attention to what the data reveals about the role of migration in future population change, and what the headline figures conceal.
Download the full report here.
Key Findings
i) The UK’s natural population is already in decline
ii) The three scenarios diverge immediately and never converge
iii) The “High” migration scenario is conservative relative to recent reality
iv) Net zero migration produces accelerating population loss
v) The term “net migration” underplays the true scale of population churn because it does not take into account the difficulty of integrating new arrivals, or the children born to migrants.
