Summary Fact Sheet

Key Facts 12.3
  1. Projected Population Growth
  2. Population Density
  3. Births to foreign parents
  4. Foreign born
  5. Immigration
  6. Jobs
  7. Housing
  8. Education
  9. Public Opinion

1. Projected Population Growth

Projected Population Growth by Country

(Millions)201220172022202720322037
England53.555.457.359.160.762.2
Wales3.13.13.23.23.33.3
Scotland5.35.45.55.65.75.8
Northern Ireland1.81.91.92.02.02.0
United Kingdom63.765.868.070.071.773.3

Source: ONS, National Population Projections, 2012-based Statistical Bulletin, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_334975.pdf

The UK population will reach 70 million in 2027 on current assumptions and 80 million in 2063.

Only net migration of 40,000 or less will keep the population below 70 million.

Bangladesh1,033 people per square kilometre
Taiwan639
South Korea484
Lebanon406
Rwanda403
England401
Netherlands400
UK255
Germany231
France114
Spain91

The population density level of England is projected to be 461 persons per square kilometre in 2031.

Source: United National Population Division. Mr James Clappison, Parliamentary Question 10595, 26 July 2010, Column 745W-746W, URL: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/.../cmhansrd/cm100726/text/100726w0006.htm

3. Births to foreign parents

In 2012, a quarter (25.9%) of all births in England and Wales were to mothers born outside the United Kingdom. In London this figure was 57.4%. In the London Boroughs of Newham, Brent, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea over 70% of births are to mothers born outside the UK.

A Parliamentary answer revealed that in 2011, 64.9% of all births in London were to couples where one or both were born outside the UK.

Source: ONS, Births in England and Wales by parents’ country of birth, 2012, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/parents--country-of-birth--england-and-wales/2012/rtd-parents-country-of-birth-tables.xls Nicholas Soames, Parliamentary Question 150601, 15 April 2013, URL: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/.../cm130415/text/130415w0007.htm9

4. Foreign born population of the UK

UK Population born overseas:

19915.8%
201214.1% or 7.6 million people

Source: ONS, Estimated population resident in the United Kingdom by country of birth, January 2012 – December 2012, Table 1.1, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/.../2012/population-by-country-of-birth-and-nationality-tables-january-2012-to-december-2012.xls

5. Latest Immigration Statistics (Year Ending June 2012)

TotalBritishEU15A8Non-EU
Inflow497,00081,00084,00058,000260,000
Outflow321,000144,00040,00029,000104,000
Net176,000-63,00044,00029,000157,000

Total net migration was 48,000 in 1997

In the year ending December 2012, net migration from the EU was 82,000, or 34% of total non-British net migration (47% of total net migration)

1997-2011 Non-British Net Migration3.7 million
1997-2011 British Net Migration-1 million
1997 – 2011 EU Net Migration0.8 million, or 29% of total net migration

The 2011 Census found that the UK population was 500,000 greater than had been estimated using births, deaths and net migration data which the ONS have attributed to EU migration being more significant than had been recorded by the International Passenger Survey. For more on this see here: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/9.32

Source: ONS Long Term International Migration, 2 Series, Table 2.01a LTIM Citizenship 1991-2011. URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/.../2011/2-01a-ltim-citizenship--1991-2011.xls

6. Jobs

Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000

However, the situation may be improving. Between Quarter 3 2012 and Quarter 3 2013, UK nationals accounted for 68% of the increase in employment, suggesting that measures to reduce net migration are having a positive effect for UK workers in the labour market.

Vacancies remained largely unchanged at about 650,000 from June 2001 to September 2008 at which point the economic crisis saw vacancies fall sharply. They remained unchanged at around 450,000-500,000 between late 2009 and January 2012. They have since increased to almost 550,000.

There are currently 1.4 million EU workers in Britain, 707,000 of whom come from the A8 countries of East Europe. The number of British workers in the EU was estimated in 2011 to be 407,000.

Only a third of the 4.3 million non-UK born workers were born in the EU, most are originally from outside the EU.

In 2012, 145,138 work permits were issued, (plus a further 11,713 dependants who also acquire the right to work upon arrival). This includes almost 30,000 Intra Company Transfers and 15,500 domestic workers. There were a further 141,000 in country extensions of stay (extensions of work visas or switching) excluding dependants.

Source: ONS, Employment Levels by country of birth and nationality, Updated November 2013, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2013/table-emp06.xls, ONS, Vacancies and Unemployment, Updated November 2013, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2013/table-vacs01.xls, Migration Watch UK, The British in Europe, URL: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/4.21, Home Office Statistics, Table wk.01, Out of country visas to the United Kingdom and in country extensions of stay by work categories, 2012, URL: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/.../immigration-asylum-research/immigration-tabs-q4-2012/work-q4-2012-tabs.

7. Housing

Government household projections show that England will need to build 232,000 households per year or 5.8 million homes between 2008 and 2033. Two million or 36% of this projected household requirement will be as a result of immigration.

This means that the housing demand caused by immigration can only be satisfied by building over 200 extra homes every day, or one every seven minutes for the 25 year period.

Source: DCLG, Household Projections, 2008-2033, England, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6395/1780763.pdf.

8. Education

In 2013 the National Audit Office revealed that 240,000 additional primary school places are still needed by 2014/15, 90,000 of which will be required in London.

In 2009, it was revealed that there were 10 schools where no pupils speak English as a first language.

Figures for 2010 show that in Inner London, 55% of all primary school pupils do not speak English as a first language. In Outer London, this figure is 39%.

Across the UK, one in six primary school children did not speak English as a first language.

Sources: National Audit Office, Capital Funding for New School Places, March 2013, URL: http://media.nao.org.uk/uploads/2013/03/10089-001_Capital-funding-for-new-school-places.pdf. Migration Watch UK Briefing Paper 2.7, Changing Primary Schools in England 1998-2010, URL: http://migrationwatch.co.uk/briefingPaper/document/210, The Telegraph, ‘Ten Primary Schools in England with 100 percent of pupils who do not speak English as a first language’, 27 January 2009, URL: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/.../Ten-primary-schools-in-England-with-100-per-cent-of-pupils-who-do-not-speak-English-as-a-first-language.html

9. Public Opinion

(For a full analysis see: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/249)

71% believe that there are too many immigrants in the UK, Ipsos Global Advisor Poll, August 2011.

94% agreed that Britain is ‘full up’. BBC One Sunday Morning Live Poll, November 2011.

78% support the government’s aim to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, including 70% of those who voted Liberal Democrat in the 2010 General Election, YouGov for The Sunday Times, January 2012

68% believe that immigration has a negative effect on Britain, YouGov for The Sunday Times, January 2012

66% believe that immigration has had a negative impact on the availability of jobs, Ipsos Mori for British Future, January 2012.

76% believe that immigration has placed too much pressure on public services including health, transport and education, Ipsos Global Advisor Poll, August 2011.

86% support changing the rules on benefits so that benefits are only available to people who have been resident in Britain for a fixed amount of time, such as a year, Sunday Times YouGov Poll, March 2013.

75% support changing NHS rules so non-emergency treatment is only available to people who have been resident in Britain for a fixed period, such as a year, Sunday Times YouGov Poll, March 2013.

88% believe that immigrants who are unable to speak English or unwilling to integrate have created ‘discomfort and disjointedness’ in British communities, YouGov for The Sunday Times, April 2011.

72% disagreed that an amnesty should be granted to illegal immigrants in Britain, YouGov for Migration Watch UK, June 2006.

12% believe that immigration had changed their local community for the better, 88% disagreed. Searchlight Educational Trust, February 2011, URL: http://www.fearandhope.org.uk/project-report/themes

Updated 10 December, 2013

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