Summary Fact Sheet

Key Facts 12.3
  1. Projected Population Growth
  2. Population Density
  3. Births to foreign parents
  4. Foreign born
  5. Immigration
  6. Jobs
  7. Housing
  8. Education
  9. Public Opinion

1. Projected Population Growth

Projected Population Growth by Country

(Millions)201220172022202720322037
England53.555.457.359.160.762.2
Wales3.13.13.23.23.33.3
Scotland5.35.45.55.65.75.8
Northern Ireland1.81.91.92.02.02.0
United Kingdom63.765.868.070.071.773.3

Source: ONS, National Population Projections, 2012-based Statistical Bulletin, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_334975.pdf

The UK population will reach 70 million in 2027 on the current assumption of net immigration of 165,000 a year and 80 million in 2063.

Only net migration of 40,000 or less will keep the population below 70 million. It would then peak at just under 70 million (69.7 million) in mid-century.

2. Population Density

England, not the UK, is the second most crowded country in the European Union, excluding the island state of Malta. England is the eighth most crowded country in the world when city and island states are excluded.

Area sq/kmPopulationPop'n Density per sq/km
Bangladesh130,170156,595,0001203
Taiwan*36,19123,340,000645
South Korea97,10052,982,000546
Netherlands33,73016,804,000498
Rwanda24,67011,777,000477
Lebanon10,2304,467,000437
India2,973,1901,252,140,000421
England*130,39553,865,800413
Burundi25,68010,163,000396
Haiiti27,56010,317,000374
Israel21,6408,059,000372
Belgium30,28011,195,000370
Japan364,500127,339,000349
Phillipines298,17098,394,000330
China9,327,4901,357,380,000146
UK241,93064,097,000265
Germany348,57080,622,000231
France547,66066,028,000121
Spain498,80046,761,00094

The population density of England is projected to be 461 persons per square kilometre in 2030, when the population will reach 60.1 million.

Source: Area and Population data, World Bank and ONS. Population Projections of England, ONS 2012 Based Population Projection, England, Principal Projection, 6 November 2013, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2012-based-projections/rft-table-a1-4-principal-projection---england-summary.xls

3. Births to foreign parents

In 2013 over a quarter (26.5%) of all births in England and Wales were to mothers born outside the United Kingdom.

In 2012 this figure was 25.9%. In London the figure was 57.4%. In the London Boroughs of Newham, Brent, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea over 70% of births are to mothers born outside the UK.

A Parliamentary answer revealed that in 2011, 64.9% of all births in London were to couples where one or both were born outside the UK.

Source: ONS, Births in England and Wales, 2013, July 2014, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_371129.pdf
ONS, Births in England and Wales by parents’ country of birth, 2012, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/parents--country-of-birth--england-and-wales/2012/rtd-parents-country-of-birth-tables.xls
Nicholas Soames, Parliamentary Question 150601, 15 April 2013, URL: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm130415/text/130415w0007.htm#130415w0007.htm_spnew39

4. Foreign born population of the UK

UK Population born overseas:

19915.8%
201214.1% or 7.6 million people

Source: ONS, Estimated population resident in the United Kingdom by country of birth, January 2012 – December 2012, Table 1.1, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/.../2012/population-by-country-of-birth-and-nationality-tables-january-2012-to-december-2012.xls

5. Latest Immigration Statistics (Year Ending December 2013)

TotalBritishEU15A8Non-EU
Inflow526,00076,000201,00070,000249,000
Outflow314,000134,00078,00026,000103,000
Net212,000-57,000124,00044,000146,000

In the year ending December 2013, net migration from the EU was 124,000, or 46% of total non-British net migration.

1997-2013 Non-British Net Migration3.4 million
Comprising Non-British Net Migration4.54 million (of which EU was 1.2m or 35%)
And British Net Migration-1.17 million
1997 – 2013 EU Net Migration1.2 million.

Source: ONS Long Term International Migration, 2 Series, Table 2.01a LTIM Citizenship 1991-2012. URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/long-term-international-migration/2012/table-2-01a.xls
LTIM, 2001-2013 Table 1, URL: 'http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/may-2014/provisional-13q4.xls

6. Jobs

Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.4 million to over 4.5 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 670,000.

While there are suggestions that British born workers have been catching up during 2013, a very large part of their increase in employment levels has resulted from increases in self-employment, and it is not at all clear whether these are jobs that will allow people to maintain themselves and their families

There are currently 1.7 million EU workers in Britain, 775,000 of whom come from the A8 countries of East Europe. The number of British workers in the EU was estimated in 2011 to be 407,000.

Only 38% of the 4.5 million non-UK born workers were born in the EU, most are originally from outside the EU.

In 2013, 109,000work permits were issued and an additional 46,000 dependants were granted leave. . This includes almost 33,000 Intra Company Transfers and 16,500 domestic workers. There were a further 73,000 in country extensions of stay (extensions of work visas or switching) excluding dependants.

Source: ONS, Employment Levels by country of birth and nationality, Updated May 2014, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/july-2014/table-emp06.xls, Migration Watch UK, The British in Europe, URL: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/4.21, Home Office Statistics, Table ex_02_w: Grants of an extension of stay by category and country of nationality, excluding dependants: Work, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/311795/extensions-q1-2014-tabs.ods.

7. Housing

Government household projections show that England will need to build 232,000 households per year or 5.8 million homes between 2008 and 2033. Two million or 36% of this projected household requirement will be as a result of immigration.

This means that the housing demand caused by immigration can only be satisfied by building over 200 extra homes every day, or one every seven minutes for the 25 year period.

Source: DCLG, Household Projections, 2008-2033, England, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6395/1780763.pdf.

8. Education

In 2013 the National Audit Office revealed that 240,000 additional primary school places are still needed by 2014/15, 90,000 of which will be required in London.

In 2009, it was revealed that there were 10 schools where no pupils speak English as a first language.

Figures for 2010 show that in Inner London, 55% of all primary school pupils do not speak English as a first language. In Outer London, this figure is 39%.

Across the UK, almost one in five primary school children did not speak English as a first language and 14% of state funded secondary school pupils did not speak English as a first language.

Sources: National Audit Office, Capital Funding for New School Places, March 2013, URL: http://media.nao.org.uk/uploads/2013/03/10089-001_Capital-funding-for-new-school-places.pdf. Migration Watch UK Briefing Paper 2.7, Changing Primary Schools in England 1998-2010, URL: http://migrationwatch.co.uk/briefingPaper/document/210, The Telegraph, ‘Ten Primary Schools in England with 100 percent of pupils who do not speak English as a first language’, 27 January 2009, URL: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/.../Ten-primary-schools-in-England-with-100-per-cent-of-pupils-who-do-not-speak-English-as-a-first-language.html, Department for Education, Schools, pupils and their characteristics, January 2013, Table 5a Number and Percentage of Pupils by First Language, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/207671/National_tables_-_SFR21_2013.xls

9. Public Opinion

(For a full analysis see: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/249)

77% want to see a reduction of immigration into Britain, British Social Attitudes Survey Jan 2014.

71% believe that there are too many immigrants in the UK, Ipsos Global Advisor Poll, August 2011.

94% agreed that Britain is ‘full up’. BBC One Sunday Morning Live Poll, November 2011.

78% support the government’s aim to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, including 70% of those who voted Liberal Democrat in the 2010 General Election, YouGov for The Sunday Times, January 2012

68% believe that immigration has a negative effect on Britain, YouGov for The Sunday Times, January 2012

66% believe that immigration has had a negative impact on the availability of jobs, Ipsos Mori for British Future, January 2012.

76% believe that immigration has placed too much pressure on public services including health, transport and education, Ipsos Global Advisor Poll, August 2011.

86% support changing the rules on benefits so that benefits are only available to people who have been resident in Britain for a fixed amount of time, such as a year, Sunday Times YouGov Poll, March 2013.

75% support changing NHS rules so non-emergency treatment is only available to people who have been resident in Britain for a fixed period, such as a year, Sunday Times YouGov Poll, March 2013.

88% believe that immigrants who are unable to speak English or unwilling to integrate have created ‘discomfort and disjointedness’ in British communities, YouGov for The Sunday Times, April 2011.

72% disagreed that an amnesty should be granted to illegal immigrants in Britain, YouGov for Migration Watch UK, June 2006.

12% believe that immigration had changed their local community for the better, 88% disagreed. Searchlight Educational Trust, February 2011, URL: http://www.fearandhope.org.uk/project-report/themes

Updated 17 July, 2014

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