Up to two million Hongkongers could move to UK under new visa

Around half a million people from Hong Kong are expected to move to the UK in the next year, and just over one million across five years, according to Whitehall’s highest estimates, but some experts believe this could end up being even greater.

Hong Kong’s political crisis has escalated since the Government’s estimations were first published in October. In November, four opposition lawmakers were ousted from the Legislative Council – its parliament equivalent – prompting the remaining 15 in the pro-democracy camp to quit.

In December, a Chinese court jailed 10 pro-democracy activists for up to three years, for trying to flee Hong Kong – where they faced charges – to Taiwan via boat in August.

Earlier this month, 53 former opposition lawmakers and activists were arrested in the biggest crackdown so far under the city’s national security law. Authorities accused them of plotting to “overthrow” the government.

Given the unrest over Beijing’s clampdown, one prominent migration lawyer says up to two million Hongkongers could apply for the new UK visas over the next five years, out of almost three million who are eligible. Applications open on Jan 31.

Not all would end up moving to Britain, but they would have the right to do so. The visas could be seen as a safety net in case Chinese restrictions on Hong Kong’s freedoms are tightened even further.

Hong Kong residents born before 1997 – when Britain handed the city back to China – are eligible for BN(O) status, meaning they can apply for the new visa. It will allow applicants, and their dependants, to stay in the UK with the right to work for either 30 months or five years.

After five years they can apply to settle, so long as they have not spent more than 180 days outside the UK in any 12-month period. Another year later they can apply for citizenship.

“I honestly think it will be a lot closer to two million who will take it up,” said Kezia Daley, senior associate and immigration specialist for law firm Winckworth Sherwood.

“If you are looking at those who are born in the Eighties and Nineties, the UK is still very attractive. There will be a lot of young families, so people may want to take up the opportunity to come to the UK and have the children educated.”

Advocacy group Hongkongers in Britain – founded by Simon Cheng, a former British consulate employee in Hong Kong who was detained in mainland China last year – estimates over 600,000 could apply within two years, based on a survey of more than 300 Hongkongers from September to October. It said 93pc of respondents intend to apply for the BN(O) visa. Over 70pc plan to in 2021 and 80pc in 2022 – higher than Home Office findings.

Many will have children they want to study in the UK and “most” will be well qualified, said Julian Chan, head of public affairs at HKB: “Which I think is one reason why the British Government was so generous.”

Economists believe a huge inflow of skilled, middle-class workers would bring billions of pounds to the UK.

Announced in July in response to China imposing a divisive national security law on Hong Kong, the visas prompted Beijing to accuse the UK Government of “political manipulation”.

A rising number of high net worth individuals from Hong Kong have invested in the UK since the national security law was introduced. There has also been an increase in property investment in the UK from the Asian city. There has been a surge in BN(O) passport applications from Hong Kong in 2020, with the Home Office having issued over 200,000 to the city’s residents during the first 10 months – higher than any annual figure stretching back to 1997.

According to the figures obtained by Bloomberg and confirmed by the Home Office, 52pc more passports were granted in October than in the same month last year.

Though a BN(O) passport isn’t needed to get a visa, experts say Hongkongers might think the application will be easier with the document in hand.

Government figures note there were 612,000 BN(O) passport holders by August 2020. Judging by the rate of applications, it estimated this could increase to over 730,000 by the end of the year. Already in the three months to mid-October, more than 2,000 people from Hong Kong were granted six months’ stay in the UK, according to government figures.

Experts say the uptake of this earlier route – available to those who can prove exceptional circumstances for needing to leave, like safety concerns – demonstrates the visa’s attractiveness. They will have to apply for new visas come January.

Meanwhile Britain has seen a surge in investment from wealthy Hongkongers. In the third quarter of last year, 20 tier one investment visas were granted to people from Hong Kong – the highest number since it launched in 2008 and a leap from just six in the same period a year earlier, according to official figures.

Applicants via this route do not have to live in Britain but must invest at least £2m into UK-listed companies, meaning a minimum of £40m was ploughed into London’s blue-chips within the three months to September.

The percentage of tier one investment visas granted to Hongkongers has been on the rise since the second quarter of 2019, just after protests against the city’s government began that March.

During the three months to June 2019, 10pc of all tier one investment visas came from Hong Kong – the highest level since the first quarter of 2017. Since then, a total of 71 have been approved, indicating at least £142m has been invested into UK stocks in just over a year.

At the same time estate agents say there was an uptick of demand from Hong Kong buyers last year, citing political uncertainty and security concerns as a push factor.

According to research by Hamptons International, Hong Kong buyers bought their biggest share of homes in prime central London so far last year since the survey began in 2011.

In the first three quarters of 2020 they accounted for 7pc of purchases – ahead of a previous record of 5pc in 2018 and 2014 – making them the third largest group after EU and Middle Eastern buyers.

“There seems to be a sense of urgency of getting things done,” said Robert Bailey, an independent buying agent in London. “What we are looking at now is [Hongkongers] looking at moving here, which has never been the case before. It’s been much more of an investment market.”