Students and Graduate Visas – Migration Watch UK

Public Attitudes to Migration

Migration Watch — Fri, 22 May 2026 08:02:03 +0000

In November 2025, Migration Watch UK commissioned JL Partners to conduct a nationally representative poll of 1,520 UK adults on public attitudes toward net migration levels, the perceived impact of migration across eight policy areas, and views on long-term demographic change. The results show settled, cross-party, public majority concern about the scale of recent migration and, in one finding, the most intensely held view recorded anywhere in the poll.

Key findings

61 per cent said net migration was too high, including 38 per cent who chose “far too high”, the single largest response category. Eight per cent said the level was too low. The breadth of this view extends well beyond the groups most typically associated with concern about migration levels.
Majorities of Labour voters, graduates, and respondents across every region of the United Kingdom judged recent levels too high. No demographic group produced a majority saying levels were too low.
Across all eight policy areas tested, negative assessments outweighed positive ones. There was no area of public life in which the public believed migration had, on balance, been beneficial.
Housing was the area of sharpest concern: 57 per cent said migration had reduced the availability of homes (net score minus 42 percentage points) and 49 per cent said it had made housing less affordable (net minus 34). Even on the NHS, where public awareness of migrants’ contribution as health service staff is highest, 50 per cent still rated migration’s net impact as negative against 22 per cent who rated it positively.
49 per cent of respondents viewed the projection that the White British population will fall below 50 per cent of the UK total by the 2060s negatively, with 33 per cent selecting “very negative”. That figure is the highest single response intensity recorded anywhere in the poll, exceeding concern about housing availability (25 per cent) and crime (24 per cent).

Read the full report: ‘Public Attitudes Toward Migration: A National Polling Analysis’

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The Future of Student Visas

Migration Watch — Thu, 28 Aug 2025 19:28:00 +0000

Executive summary

Getting immigration under control must be the first and main priority of any new government. The problem now lies not merely in illegal immigration, which the current government has liked to make a big show of tackling, but the legal routes to entry that have allowed the immigrant population to explode and become the principal driver of our population growth.

Download Briefing Document PDF

This briefing document looks at the most prominent route that has led to an increase in immigrant numbers – international students on study visas – and how they can be reduced. There is debate over whether international students should be excluded from or included in the official numbers; however, there is a simple reason for including them, which is that the visa type aligns with the United Nations’ (UN) Statistics Division definition of an immigrant:

A person who moves to a country other than their usual residence for at least 12 months, with the destination country becoming their new usual residence.

This is the definition used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as well.

Moreover, there are three commonsense reasons as to why international students should be considered migrants and included in migration numbers:

Student visas are, for all intents and purposes, no less temporary than visas issued to workers, due to the extended period of coverage, the high level of overall retention rate, and the ability for recipients to bring dependants with them (with caveats – see Section Two).
The consumption of services both public and private is no lower for student visa recipients simply because they are students. International students are still entitled to access the National Health Service (NHS), use public transport, occupy property, and so on.
The student visa system encourages retention, by allowing international students to work during their courses (up to 20 hours for full-time university students of any level, set by the Home Office), and apply for the Graduate Visa route once their studies are completed.

Given these practicalities, and the fact that the shortest university course lasts at least twelve months, there is an obvious reason for including these “education immigrants” in the figures.

On the basis of two facts – that immigration must be brought under control, and study visas are the largest source of immigration – the reduction of study visas must be considered as an immediate option. This briefing paper recommends the following three methods for introducing a cap on the number of study visas issued each year:

Provide licensed universities with a set number of “Certificates of Sponsorship” for visas.
Disallow the issuing of visas for dependents for all students, except for PhD research students.
Visa interviews should be administered by the Home Office prior to any visa being issued, and the decision should rest with the interviewing officer.
The allowance for international students to work up to 20 hours a week during term time, and an unlimited amount outside of term time, must be ended.

Student immigration to the UK

Migration Watch — Mon, 27 Jun 2022 19:14:00 +0000

Key points

In March 2019, the government set a target to have 600,000 students enrolled in UK higher education (HE) by 2030^[1] – a 30% increase on 2017/18. This target had already been reached by 2020/21 (Higher Education Statistics Agency, or HESA)^[2].
A record 440,000 study visa were granted in year to March 2022 (Home Office)^[3].
The University Admissions Service (UCAS) predict further increase of 50% in international undergraduate applicants by 2026 (see media report^[4]).
The top 20 HE providers at which non-UK students were enrolled made up 7% of 282 organisations, yet accounted for 38% of the total number of students enrolled (or 230,000 out of just over 600,000) – HESA data for 2020/21^[5].
In four institutions (all in London), the majority of students were from overseas.
Areas with high numbers of non-UK students are London, Manchester, Edinburgh, Coventry, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Warwick and Hertfordshire (Hatfield).
Study visas are a major long-term immigration route: 120,000 people stayed on after expiry of their initial study visa (in 2018/19), with most granted further visas enabling them to remain for more study, work or family reasons (ONS)^[6]. It is not true that 97% of students leave after initial visa expiry; 40% stay on (summary).
Around 20,000 people per year have been granted a permanent stay in the UK after having originally arrived on a study visa. This route is not meant to be a direct route to settling in the UK (Home Office migrant journey report)^[7].
There are between 10,000 and 20,000 per year for whom there is no clear record of departure (according the ONS) – indicating potential overstaying.
Driving up study visas higher than the current record would not be wise, especially during the present housing, economic and health crises. Recommendations below.
A weakening of study visa requirements means more potential for the return of abuse and fraud which reached a peak during from 2009-11 (see Annex below).
61% of the public say overseas students should not receive priority in our new immigration system (Deltapoll, 2020).

Introduction

1. The UK’s higher education product is a major export and an important component of soft power. It is important to have a viable study visa route into the UK. However, it is also important to keep numbers at reasonable levels and prevent a repetition of the wide-ranging abuse that has occurred in the past (see Annex).

2. The latest statistics show that the government have already achieved their objective of 600,000 non-UK domiciled students enrolling in higher education courses per year. Yet the University Admissions Service (UCAS) are already predicting a further 50% increase in international undergraduate applicants by 2026.

3. ONS data show that the number of students coming to the UK on study visas rose by 30% in the last four years since 2017/8. Meanwhile about four in ten overseas students stay on in the UK after expiry of initial permission, whether it is by obtaining new visas (whether for work, family or further study) or potentially overstaying.^[8]

4. The powerful and well-connected higher education lobby is, of course, keen to keep the number of overseas students high, and growing, as they pay higher tuition fees which add greatly to their funding and, perhaps, their salaries.

5. It is not in dispute that there should be a route for the brightest and best students to be able to stay on for work, to start a business or conduct pioneering research. There are ample arrangements in place to permit all of these outcomes but the great majority of students should return home where they will hopefully be well disposed towards Britain.

The share of foreign students

6. In 2020/21 there were a total of just under 2.8 million students enrolled in UK higher education. Of these, 22% (605,000) were domiciled outside the UK.

7. Figure 1 below shows that the largest share (about two-thirds) were from outside the EU. The vast majority (84%) of the total 180,000 increase in the number of such student enrolments in the past decade was due to a significant increase (of 152,000) in the number of annual non-EU enrolments.

Figure 1: Higher education enrolments by domicile, Higher Education Statistics Agency.Higher education enrolments by domicileHigher Education Statistics AgencyHigher education student enrolments (non-UK domiciled)Of which: EUOf which: Non-EU2012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/210100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,0002014/15●

Higher education student enrolments (non-UK domiciled): 436,585● Of which: EU: 124,575● Of which: Non-EU: 312,010

Where in the UK are non-UK students enrolled?

8. Table 1 below shows the top 20 higher education providers at which non-UK students were enrolled, by the number of overseas enrollees. This set of 20 made up just 7% of a total of 282 UK organisations, yet accounted for 38% of the total number of overseas students enrolled (or 230,000 out of just over 600,000).

9. Areas where there are relatively high numbers of non-UK students are London, Manchester, Edinburgh, Coventry, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Warwick, Hertfordshire and Birmingham. There are four institutions (all in London) for which a majority of enrollees are overseas students.

Table 1: Top 20 higher education institutions by number of non-UK students. HESA.

Rank	Institution	Number of non-UK students enrolled	Non-UK as share of enrollees of all domiciles
1	University College London	23,360	51%
2	University of Manchester	17,625	39%
3	University of Edinburgh	15,590	41%
4	Kings College London	15,550	40%
5	Coventry University	13,760	35%
6	University of Glasgow	13,245	36%
7	Imperial College London	11,265	53%
8	University of Sheffield	11,260	37%
9	University of the Arts, London	11,230	53%
10	University of Leeds	10,455	28%
11	University of Warwick	10,305	37%
12	University of Hertfordshire	9,725	32%
13	University of Birmingham	9,530	25%
14	Ulster University	9,090	28%
15	London School of Economics	9,030	67%
16	University of Oxford	9,030	33%
17	University of Bristol	8,090	27%
18	Liverpool University	7,805	27%
19	Queen Mary, London	7,795	33%
20	Cardiff University	7,725	23%
	Total (top 20 institutions)	231,465
	Total non-UK students in UK	603,130
	Top 20 share of total	38%

Annual number of student visas

10. The student route remains one of the easier ways of getting to the UK and has become the largest long-term visa entry route. In the year to March 2022, there were just under 440,000 study visas issued. Comparing calendar years, the number issued in 2021 was just under 230,000 higher than in 2005.

Figure 2: Study visas issued per year since 2005 (Home Office statistics).Study visas issued per year since 2005Home Office statisticsStudy visa grants20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021100,000200,000300,000400,000500,0002010●

Study visa grants: 334,735

11. Chinese nationals were the most common nationality granted Sponsored study visas in 2021, with 119,334 visas granted, similar to that seen in 2019 (119,825).

12. Nigerian nationals saw the largest relative increase in Sponsored Study grants compared with 2019, increasing by 34,816 (+415%) to a record high of 43,200, making them the third largest nationality group this year – see HO summary.^[9]

13. The government notesthat students ‘may have some impact on the communities in which they live’. These impacts can include access to local housing, congestion, access to public services, environmental impacts and crime.

14. It is certainly true that, while overseas students can have a beneficial economic effect on communities, there can also be detrimental. For example, ‘rising numbers of students can cause pressures on the private rental market if the stock of housing is fixed in the short-term’ while, in the realm of transport, students ‘may add to congestion’.^[10]

15. Additionally, if institutions have a very high proportion of overseas students, this might make it less likely that the foreign students will mix with the British students, while some domestic students have raised concerns over the quality of academic discussions and international students requiring more attention from the lecturer.^[11] It is also likely to the detriment of British students that so many of the places in our top universities are allocated to foreign students.

16. Such factors may help to explain why 61% of the public say overseas students should not receive priority in the immigration system (Deltapoll, 2020).

The number who stay on

17. The government says that the study visa is ‘a temporary route for the purpose of undertaking a course of study within the UK, rather than to settle’.

18. It is now apparent that government policy on student visas has been based upon a false assessment by the government of the share of overseas students who stay on for further studies or other purposes. Rather than 3%, as the government and other immigration activists have suggested, the true figure is nearly 40%. Given that an all-time record of 440,000 study visas were granted in the past year, the consequences for net migration are clearly much greater than the government has admitted, or even, perhaps realised. As the Home Office now admits, ‘significant numbers’ of students stay permanently.^[12] For more on this, read our summary.^[13]

19. Study visas provide a major immigration route into the UK; ONS analysis shows that nearly 120,000 people stayed on after expiry of their initial study visa (in 2018/19), with most granted further visas enabling them to remain for more study, work or family reasons.

20. The increase was partly due to the previous increase in non-EU long-term students whose visas expired in each year, rising from 193,000 in 2015/16 to 335,000 in 2018/19. However, the share staying on also increased from 29% to 35% (see ONS bulletins here and here).

21. According to ONS analysis of HO Exit Checks, there are also between 10,000 and 20,000 people who arrived on study visas per year for whom there is no clear record of departure in line with the rules. A number of this cohort may remain in the UK without permission.

22. Meanwhile, Home Office data show that, between 2009 and 2020, nearly 300,000 people (295,604) were granted permanent settlement in the UK after having initially entered the UK on a study visa (HO migrant journey statistics). That is between 20,000 and 30,000 per year.

The outlook

23. On 1 July 2021 the government re-opened the flawed post-study work route that was closed after this route was deemed by the government to have failed in 2012. Foreign students are now once again allowed to stay on for two or three years, even if only to stack shelves. Applicants do need a job offer in advance or to earn a minimum salary, and will not be subject to a labour market test – aspects of the route which polling suggests are deeply unpopular with the public.

24. In the year to year to March 2022, there were 33,682 extensions granted in the new Graduate category. Indian, Nigerian and Chinese nationals accounted for over a half (58%) of grants in this route.^[14]

25. Reviving this graduate work route needlessly loosened what was already an ample pathway for students to remain and work. It risks harming the prospects of UK jobseekers during an economic crisis and adding pressure to congestion and on housing while failing to deliver commensurate benefits (see our paper: MW 490 – Risks of reviving the defective post-study work route).

26 (i). The government should restore proper control over entry to the study visa route – for example by using humans to vet applications and not relying on algorithms to electronically wave applications through.

(ii) Access to the graduate work route should also be controlled with reasonable measures, as before, with salary thresholds, the requirement for job offers and caps to ensure both that it is the best and brightest who stay on and so that UK jobseekers and workers are not disadvantaged by being undercut and displaced by cheaper recruits from overseas.

Annex: Abuse of the study visa route

Unfortunately, widespread abuse of the study visa route is well documented by Home Office, the National Audit Office (NAO) and the BBC. Some examples of abuse are listed below:

In 2009/10, there were so many dubious student visa applications that consulate posts had to be closed for several months
The NAO found in 2012 that the HO implemented Tier 4 with flaws ‘which were predictable and could have been avoided’.
In the same report, the NAO said that because ‘the UKBA implemented Tier 4 before the key controls were in place’, 40,000-50,000 of those who entered might have come to work rather than to study.
The NAO also pointed to serious shortcomings in enforcement action against students found to be overstaying or working in breach of their visa conditions.
A 2011 Home Office study showed that around 60% of students from major source countries such as India, Bangladesh and Nigeria should have been refused a visa to study on credibility grounds.
In 2019 the NAO concluded that there had been cheating on a large scale at two English language test centres. The HO pointed to significant organised fraud.

Government response to student visa abuse

The government responded to the well-documented abuse of the route with the following measures between 2010 and 2015:

More stringent sponsorship regulations – From 2011, education institutions needed to acquire Highly Trusted Sponsor status and thus be subject to a stricter set of compliance rules and be accredited by an appropriate education body. Since then around 1,000 bogus colleges have been shut down.
Tougher evidentiary oversight – In 2010, the HO implemented a mandatory system for unique electronic sponsorship documents (confirmations of acceptance for studies) through which sponsors must report non-attendance, academic progress and student contact details.
Tighter English language requirements introduced for those studying below University level. Universities retain discretion to assess language competence.
Some interviews reintroduced – In 2012 a “Credibility Interview” was introduced to allow Entry Clearance Officers to request an interview to assess genuineness if there were concerns about intentions to study or supporting documentation (e.g. 9,700 such interviews were conducted in 2013/14).
Limit on time spent studying as an undergraduate. In April 2012, the government limited the amount of time that an overseas student could spend enrolled as an undergraduate to a maximum of five years for most undergraduate courses. However, there is no maximum study requirement for applicants who are studying a course above undergraduate degree level.

However, since 2017, the government’s approach has been to considerably loosen the study visa route, including by implementing the following measures:

Mid-2018: The government loosened study visa rules, meaning that applicants from 11 additional countries were no longer required to show certain forms of documentary proof to obtain a student visa including evidence that they had enough funds to live here or that they speak an adequate level of English. This brought the total number of countries treated in this way to 27.
Mid-2018: Changes are made to liberalise the system for dependants of non-EU students on a post-graduate degree at a higher education institution.
August 2019: The government implemented yet more liberalisation of the study route, extending new privileges to higher education providers with a record of compliance. These changes granted new students at such institutions the ability to work of up to 10 hours per week below degree level and 20 hours per week above degree level. They were also able to apply for leave to remain under Tier 4 or skilled work routes without having to return overseas first. Finally, some could bring dependants, depending on the level and duration of study.
October 2020: The new Student visa route (opened as part of new Points-Based System) made it easier to come on study visas sponsored by UK education institutions. Applicants need 70 points to be granted leave. These were to be awarded if applicants had an offer from an approved institution, spoke English and were able to support themselves while studying in the UK.
Mid-2021: The graduate worker route was launched, allowing new graduates the opportunity to remain in the UK to work or to look for work after their studies. This was an extension from the UK’s previous post-study work offer of four months (six months under a limited pilot programme).
September 2021: The government further extended the post-study work period to 3 years for PhD graduates.

Footnotes

The target to raise the number of overseas students enrolled in higher education to 600,000 by 2030 was first outlined in March 2019 in the government’s policy paper: “International Education Strategy: global potential, global growth”, which stated: “We want to grow the numbers of international higher education students studying in the UK to 600,000 by 2030.” See document, March 2019, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-educatio… tegy-global-potential-global-growth This document was updated in February 2021 to re-affirm this target, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-educatio… tegy-global-potential-global-growth/international-education-strategy-global-potential-global-growth
For elaboration on the target, see Parliamentary Answer to Lord Green of Deddington, June 2021, URL: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2021-06-07.HL741.h&s=speaker%3A25254#gHL741.q0
Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data, URL: https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/25-01-2022/sb262-higher-education-student-statistics/location
Home Office immigration and visa statistics, Year to March 2022, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-y… y-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-study
The Times, May 2022, URL: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/international-student-numbers-… d-rise-50-over-five-years-z3l9lwjl0
HESA data, Ibid.
ONS, ‘Visa journeys and student outcomes’, November 2021, URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand… urneysandstudentoutcomes/2021-11-29
Home Office ‘Migrant Journey’ report. 2021, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/migrant-journey-2021-report/migrant-journey-2021-report
ONS, ‘Visa journeys and student outcomes’. 2021.
Home Office visa statistics, year to March 2022, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-y… y-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-study
Migration Advisory Committee report on international students, September 2018, p. 74,URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… _students_report_published_v1.1.pdf
Ibid, p. 3,URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… _students_report_published_v1.1.pdf
Home Office exit checks analysis, 2017 to 2020. In addition, of all those granted settlement in 2019, about 3 in 10, or 29% (27,700) originally came to the UK on a study visa, Home Office migrant journey report.
Migration Watch UK blog, ‘This False Claim Drove The Government To Vastly Weaken Study Visa Rules, With Shocking Results’, June 2022, URL: https://migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/06/22/this-false-claim… dy-visa-rules-with-shocking-results
Home Office immigration and visa statistics, Year to March 2022, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-y… y-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-study

Student immigration to the UK

Migration Watch — Mon, 27 Jun 2022 18:25:00 +0000

Key points

In March 2019, the government set a target to have 600,000 students enrolled in UK higher education (HE) by 2030^[1] – a 30% increase on 2017/18. This target had already been reached by 2020/21 (Higher Education Statistics Agency, or HESA)^[2].
A record 440,000 study visa were granted in year to March 2022 (Home Office)^[3].
The University Admissions Service (UCAS) predict further increase of 50% in international undergraduate applicants by 2026 (see media report^[4]).
The top 20 HE providers at which non-UK students were enrolled made up 7% of 282 organisations, yet accounted for 38% of the total number of students enrolled (or 230,000 out of just over 600,000) – HESA data for 2020/21^[5].
In four institutions (all in London), the majority of students were from overseas.
Areas with high numbers of non-UK students are London, Manchester, Edinburgh, Coventry, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Warwick and Hertfordshire (Hatfield).
Study visas are a major long-term immigration route: 120,000 people stayed on after expiry of their initial study visa (in 2018/19), with most granted further visas enabling them to remain for more study, work or family reasons (ONS)^[6]. It is not true that 97% of students leave after initial visa expiry; 40% stay on (summary).
Around 20,000 people per year have been granted a permanent stay in the UK after having originally arrived on a study visa. This route is not meant to be a direct route to settling in the UK (Home Office migrant journey report)^[7].
There are between 10,000 and 20,000 per year for whom there is no clear record of departure (according the ONS) – indicating potential overstaying.
Driving up study visas higher than the current record would not be wise, especially during the present housing, economic and health crises. Recommendations below.
A weakening of study visa requirements means more potential for the return of abuse and fraud which reached a peak during from 2009-11 (see Annex below).
61% of the public say overseas students should not receive priority in our new immigration system (Deltapoll, 2020).

Introduction

The share of foreign students

6. In 2020/21 there were a total of just under 2.8 million students enrolled in UK higher education. Of these, 22% (605,000) were domiciled outside the UK.

Higher education student enrolments (non-UK domiciled): 438,010● Of which: EU: 127,440● Of which: Non-EU: 310,575

Where in the UK are non-UK students enrolled?

Table 1: Top 20 higher education institutions by number of non-UK students. HESA.

Rank	Institution	Number of non-UK students enrolled	Non-UK as share of enrollees of all domiciles
1	University College London	23,360	51%
2	University of Manchester	17,625	39%
3	University of Edinburgh	15,590	41%
4	Kings College London	15,550	40%
5	Coventry University	13,760	35%
6	University of Glasgow	13,245	36%
7	Imperial College London	11,265	53%
8	University of Sheffield	11,260	37%
9	University of the Arts, London	11,230	53%
10	University of Leeds	10,455	28%
11	University of Warwick	10,305	37%
12	University of Hertfordshire	9,725	32%
13	University of Birmingham	9,530	25%
14	Ulster University	9,090	28%
15	London School of Economics	9,030	67%
16	University of Oxford	9,030	33%
17	University of Bristol	8,090	27%
18	Liverpool University	7,805	27%
19	Queen Mary, London	7,795	33%
20	Cardiff University	7,725	23%
	Total (top 20 institutions)	231,465
	Total non-UK students in UK	603,130
	Top 20 share of total	38%

Annual number of student visas

Study visa grants: 278,100

11. Chinese nationals were the most common nationality granted Sponsored study visas in 2021, with 119,334 visas granted, similar to that seen in 2019 (119,825).

16. Such factors may help to explain why 61% of the public say overseas students should not receive priority in the immigration system (Deltapoll, 2020).

The number who stay on

17. The government says that the study visa is ‘a temporary route for the purpose of undertaking a course of study within the UK, rather than to settle’.

The outlook

Annex: Abuse of the study visa route

Unfortunately, widespread abuse of the study visa route is well documented by Home Office, the National Audit Office (NAO) and the BBC. Some examples of abuse are listed below:

In 2009/10, there were so many dubious student visa applications that consulate posts had to be closed for several months
The NAO found in 2012 that the HO implemented Tier 4 with flaws ‘which were predictable and could have been avoided’.
In the same report, the NAO said that because ‘the UKBA implemented Tier 4 before the key controls were in place’, 40,000-50,000 of those who entered might have come to work rather than to study.
The NAO also pointed to serious shortcomings in enforcement action against students found to be overstaying or working in breach of their visa conditions.
A 2011 Home Office study showed that around 60% of students from major source countries such as India, Bangladesh and Nigeria should have been refused a visa to study on credibility grounds.
In 2019 the NAO concluded that there had been cheating on a large scale at two English language test centres. The HO pointed to significant organised fraud.

Government response to student visa abuse

The government responded to the well-documented abuse of the route with the following measures between 2010 and 2015:

More stringent sponsorship regulations – From 2011, education institutions needed to acquire Highly Trusted Sponsor status and thus be subject to a stricter set of compliance rules and be accredited by an appropriate education body. Since then around 1,000 bogus colleges have been shut down.
Tougher evidentiary oversight – In 2010, the HO implemented a mandatory system for unique electronic sponsorship documents (confirmations of acceptance for studies) through which sponsors must report non-attendance, academic progress and student contact details.
Tighter English language requirements introduced for those studying below University level. Universities retain discretion to assess language competence.
Some interviews reintroduced – In 2012 a “Credibility Interview” was introduced to allow Entry Clearance Officers to request an interview to assess genuineness if there were concerns about intentions to study or supporting documentation (e.g. 9,700 such interviews were conducted in 2013/14).
Limit on time spent studying as an undergraduate. In April 2012, the government limited the amount of time that an overseas student could spend enrolled as an undergraduate to a maximum of five years for most undergraduate courses. However, there is no maximum study requirement for applicants who are studying a course above undergraduate degree level.

However, since 2017, the government’s approach has been to considerably loosen the study visa route, including by implementing the following measures:

Mid-2018: The government loosened study visa rules, meaning that applicants from 11 additional countries were no longer required to show certain forms of documentary proof to obtain a student visa including evidence that they had enough funds to live here or that they speak an adequate level of English. This brought the total number of countries treated in this way to 27.
Mid-2018: Changes are made to liberalise the system for dependants of non-EU students on a post-graduate degree at a higher education institution.
August 2019: The government implemented yet more liberalisation of the study route, extending new privileges to higher education providers with a record of compliance. These changes granted new students at such institutions the ability to work of up to 10 hours per week below degree level and 20 hours per week above degree level. They were also able to apply for leave to remain under Tier 4 or skilled work routes without having to return overseas first. Finally, some could bring dependants, depending on the level and duration of study.
October 2020: The new Student visa route (opened as part of new Points-Based System) made it easier to come on study visas sponsored by UK education institutions. Applicants need 70 points to be granted leave. These were to be awarded if applicants had an offer from an approved institution, spoke English and were able to support themselves while studying in the UK.
Mid-2021: The graduate worker route was launched, allowing new graduates the opportunity to remain in the UK to work or to look for work after their studies. This was an extension from the UK’s previous post-study work offer of four months (six months under a limited pilot programme).
September 2021: The government further extended the post-study work period to 3 years for PhD graduates.

Footnotes

The target to raise the number of overseas students enrolled in higher education to 600,000 by 2030 was first outlined in March 2019 in the government’s policy paper: “International Education Strategy: global potential, global growth”, which stated: “We want to grow the numbers of international higher education students studying in the UK to 600,000 by 2030.” See document, March 2019, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-educatio… tegy-global-potential-global-growth This document was updated in February 2021 to re-affirm this target, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-educatio… tegy-global-potential-global-growth/international-education-strategy-global-potential-global-growth
For elaboration on the target, see Parliamentary Answer to Lord Green of Deddington, June 2021, URL: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2021-06-07.HL741.h&s=speaker%3A25254#gHL741.q0
Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data, URL: https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/25-01-2022/sb262-higher-education-student-statistics/location
Home Office immigration and visa statistics, Year to March 2022, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-y… y-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-study
The Times, May 2022, URL: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/international-student-numbers-… d-rise-50-over-five-years-z3l9lwjl0
HESA data, Ibid.
ONS, ‘Visa journeys and student outcomes’, November 2021, URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand… urneysandstudentoutcomes/2021-11-29
Home Office ‘Migrant Journey’ report. 2021, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/migrant-journey-2021-report/migrant-journey-2021-report
ONS, ‘Visa journeys and student outcomes’. 2021.
Home Office visa statistics, year to March 2022, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-y… y-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-study
Migration Advisory Committee report on international students, September 2018, p. 74,URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… _students_report_published_v1.1.pdf
Ibid, p. 3,URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… _students_report_published_v1.1.pdf
Home Office exit checks analysis, 2017 to 2020. In addition, of all those granted settlement in 2019, about 3 in 10, or 29% (27,700) originally came to the UK on a study visa, Home Office migrant journey report.
Migration Watch UK blog, ‘This False Claim Drove The Government To Vastly Weaken Study Visa Rules, With Shocking Results’, June 2022, URL: https://migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/06/22/this-false-claim… dy-visa-rules-with-shocking-results
Home Office immigration and visa statistics, Year to March 2022, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-y… y-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-study

Risks of reviving the defective post-study work route

Migration Watch — Wed, 31 Mar 2021 18:59:00 +0000

Summary

1. Until this year, non-EU students (who account for seven in ten overseas students in higher education^[1]) have been restricted to a job search of up to six months after graduation before switching into a skilled work visa – the grant of which required a job offer, a minimum salary level and a resident labour market test. But the government has changed this – lengthening the period to two years, during which time visa holders would be able to work at any skill level (or not work at all). Applicants would not need a job offer in advance or to earn a minimum salary and will not be subject to a labour market test. The new route is set to open for applications on 1 July 2021 and will cover both EU and non-EU graduates. This amounts to the re-animation – against clear advice by official experts – of the failed post-study work policy which was closed for good reason in 2012. Reviving it will harm UK jobseekers during an economic crisis. The move also risks adding pressure to congestion and on housing while failing to deliver commensurate benefits. It would undermine the strong progress made in tackling abuse of study visas. Finally, the public will be very concerned by the failure to incorporate vital safeguards into the route, especially during this period of crisis.

Introduction

2. In order to apply under the government’s new graduate work route, overseas students must have completed an eligible course at a UK higher education provider, with a track record of compliance with the government’s immigration requirements. Those granted permission on this visa will be able to work or look for work after their studies for a maximum period of two years, or three years for Doctoral students.^[2]

3. Polling suggests that most of the public do not favour immigration routes such as this which lack key safeguards:

64% of the public say overseas workers should have to have a job offer from an approved employer before coming here (YouGov, February 2020) ^[3], yet applicants under the planned route will not be required to have a job offer to apply.
More than 70% of the public want an annual cap on the number of people coming to the UK to work^[4], yet this route will have no annual cap.
77% of respondents to a Deltapoll survey thought the government should ensure that bosses prioritise hiring UK workers instead of enabling more overseas recruitment^[5], but this route will include no such safeguard requiring recruiters to do this.

Here are four other good reasons for Ministers to think again about introducing this policy:

As it will allow substantial immigration into low-paid UK jobs, young jobseekers and those in key worker sectors would be at serious risk of losing out, especially in the midst of this current economic crisis. Immigration may negatively affect wages for those on the lowest pay and also cause job displacement, especially during a downturn.^[6] For instance, the official Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has referred to studies which show ‘migrants were found to lower wages at the bottom [of the wage distribution]’ and ‘increase native unemployment’.^[7]
The route does precisely what the government said it would not do – enabling an increase (instead of reduction) in immigration into low-skilled work. It also provides more scope for those looking to use the student route as a means of settling.
It would unravel the hard-won progress made since 2010 in tackling rampant abuse of study visas and add to risks of overstaying – particularly worrying at a time of sharply deteriorating immigration enforcement and when potential visa overstaying numbers have risen significantly since 2016, from 50,000 to over 90,000.^[8]
The route is unnecessary for the UK’s attractiveness as a student destination.

– Part One of this paper examines experience of the post-study work route 2008-2012.
– Part Two expands on the above arguments against reintroduction of this defective visa.
– Annex A below sets out the abuse that occurred following the opening of Tier 4 of the points-based system from 2009 onwards.

Part One

Previous experience of post-study work route in UK

5. Post-study work (PSW) routes of this type were previously in place, 2004-2012. The first route was introduced with a view to allowing science, maths and engineering graduates to remain for one year’s work experience. In Scotland, the Fresh Talent Scheme (2005-8) allowed two years of post-study work to international students who had studied in Scotland.

6. From 2008, such schemes were subsumed within the UK-wide Tier 1 PSW visa which allowed all of those holding UK degrees to work in the UK for two years without any formal job offer or potential employment and with no restrictions on the kind of work done.

7. The visa could not be extended but did allow dependants including partners, children, and elderly parents to be brought to the UK. These graduates could also switch into another tier of the PBS, provided they meet the relevant requirements. Persons were able to apply if they were in the UK as a student, or if they were outside the UK but met criteria under this route.

8. When the route was opened in 2008, applicants needed to score a total of 95 points to be eligible under this route, including a total of at least 75 points for a UK qualification, studying at a UK institution^[9], immigration status during UK study and/ or research and the date of award of qualification. Applicants could additionally claim 20 points if they had studied for the eligible qualification at an institution that was a UK recognised or UK listed body; was a Scottish publicly funded institution of further or higher education, or at a Scottish genuine private education institution which kept satisfactory records of enrolment and attendance; or held a sponsor licence under Tier 4 of the PBS.^[10]

How many people came to the UK under this route?

9. Figure 1 below shows that between 38,000 and 50,000 people per year used this route during the period 2009 to 2012. Full statistics on dependants are not available. However, the government revealed that there were 8,000 post-study work dependants in 2010 – a fifth as many again on top of the main applicant numbers.^[11] Both the Tier 1 (General) and the Tier 1 (Post-study work) visa were abolished in 2012.

Figure 1: Post-study work visa grants, 2008-2012. Home Office statistics.Post-study work visa grants, 2008-2012Home Office statisticsTotal grants of leave under post-study work route2008200920102011201210,00020,00030,00040,00050,0002011●

Total grants of leave under post-study work route: 49,645

What was the impact of the previous post-study work (PSW) route?

10. A large share of those who came to the UK on earlier iterations of the route were found to have taken on low or unskilled roles, e.g. stacking shelves, tending bar, driving taxis, working as security guards, or did not have jobs at all. In 2010 the Home Office found that a significant share of a sample of those here on such visas (60%) were in unskilled employment, and/or were earning less than £25,000. The sample was small (around 250) and drawn from applications for dependants to join a Tier 1 visa holder so was not necessarily representative.^[12] Other evidence from Scotland’s Fresh Talent scheme found that 25% ‘appeared to be working in low-level jobs in bars and restaurants as waiters’.^[13]

11. The MAC reinforced such findings in 2018 when it stated: “The earnings of some graduates who remain in the UK seem surprisingly low and it is likely that those who would benefit from a longer period to find a graduate level job are not the most highly skilled.”^[14]

12. In 2012, the Conservative-led Coalition Government closed the route, noting: “We had too many people coming here to work and not to study. We had too many foreign graduates staying on in the UK to work in unskilled jobs. And we had too many institutions selling immigration, not education.”

13. In 2018, the MAC deployed similar arguments in stating explicitly: “We do not recommend a separate post-study work visa.”

The government’s new graduate work route

14. Despite very clear MAC advice that this visa should not be revived, the government announced the introduction of a new graduate work route in Autumn 2019.

How many people does the government expect will come under the new visa?

15. The government published an impact assessment for their new immigration policy in April 2020.^[15] In the year to March 2020, there were 300,000 student visas issued in a 12-month period (including dependants).^[16] The vast majority of overseas students are from outside the EU but, until last year, EU students had no restrictions on seeking work after graduation because of free movement. The end of free movement means EU graduates would now, under the new visa, have two years to work or look for a job. The government expects this to lead to a reduction in EU inflows by 20% (a calculation that the Home Office admits is ‘highly uncertain’ and at the high end). When combined with the effect of new restrictions on the rights to bring dependants, the government estimated that there would be up to 25,000 fewer EU higher education students in the UK by academic year 2024/25. However, it added that ‘any places not taken by EU students may be occupied by non-EU students’.

16. Yet the government also estimated that the policy would drive up non-EU student inflows. Their calculation was based on the average percentage increase in enrolments in the period of the last post-study work visa (10%). It suggested that the stock of non-EU students in higher education would ‘gradually increase’ over the first five years of the policy, leading to 35,000-40,000 more non-EU students per year over the first five years.

17. Main applicants may be accompanied by a fifth as many dependants per year, on the basis of numbers under the previous route.

18. This suggests that, when dependants are included, the government expects the net increase from this policy may be 15,000 more people per year. This estimate does not take account of the Covid pandemic. However, given that numbers, including dependants, reached as high as 60,000 in 2011 under a very similar policy, the government assessment of the likely non-EU impact may be a major underestimate should immigration levels return to previous levels once the pandemic has passed.

19. Even if this were not a considerable underestimate, there will be the attendant congestion, housing and infrastructure pressure with little or no economic benefit beyond the payment of fees to universities.

Part Two

Arguments against reviving this deeply defective route

A) Risk of harming those who are already struggling during an economic crisis

20. Almost two million workers in the UK have been unemployed or fully furloughed for at least six months.^[17] The overall unemployment rate for 16 to 24-year-olds now stands close to 14 per cent^[18] and those with lower-level qualifications are among those worst affected. In such a context, it is worth noting that a significant share of those on the graduate study route will likely take non-graduate jobs. This is concerning since we know that the main negative effects of immigration are concentrated in punishing those in the lowest-paid jobs and with the least amount of education.

21. The government therefore risks harming the prospects of UK jobseekers, especially young people with lower-level qualifications who are looking for an entry-level job. As a think tank has noted with regard to London, ‘the inward flow of migration from other regions and abroad has resulted in a highly competitive environment at the lower end of the labour market. Many of these relatively well-skilled new residents take on low paid jobs while they finish their studies or look for something better, leaving those with the weakest skills and experience more likely to be “squeezed out”.^[19]

22. A 2012 study the MAC found that 160,000 British workers had been displaced by immigration between 1995 and 2010 and that there was a greater risk of this happening during a downturn.^[20] It is vital that the government does not allow a re-run of what occurred by reintroducing obviously flawed policies. As the government has noted: “100 additional non-EU migrants may cautiously be estimated to be associated with a reduction in employment of 23 native workers….”^[21]

23. The MAC has also said that immigration into lower-paid work has had a ‘negative impact on the wages of the low paid’ and that, in the context of such immigration, the ‘youth labour market is a cause for concern’.^[22]

24. A significant increase of thousands former students and dependants with the right to go into jobs at all skill levels may help to crowd out UK jobseekers in what will already be very difficult economic and employment conditions.

B) Lack of safeguards – with no job offer needed, no cap and no salary requirement

25. As noted above, a substantial share of those coming under this route are likely to go into low-paid work. The government promised to reduce this type of immigration (as opposed to increasing it, as this route would do). It is clear that immigration into low-paid work does not bring significant economic benefits. The former MAC chairman told the Home Affairs Committee in 2018 that this type of immigration has been a cost to the Treasury while they do make the UK a ‘lower-wage, lower productivity economy’ and do not help innovation^[23].

26. Estimates of tax revenue paid by international students post-graduation^[24] have often been deployed to argue for this route, but have misleadingly relied upon gross figures, taking no account of any corresponding costs to government of public services, cash benefits etc.^[25] As the former joint chief of staff at No 10, Nick Timothy, has noted: “No work appears to have been done to estimate the costs of this additional immigration, such as its effect on the housing stock or public services [and] no thought seems to have been given to whether policy ought to distinguish between the brightest students and the rest.” ^[26]

27. Introducing this route as part of an attempt to placate the insatiable higher education lobby – keen to secure overseas fees to plug funding gaps – would wrongly let the public foot the bill for the costs of migration (i.e. in wage impacts, potential displacement, congestion, overcrowding, and adding to demand for housing – with impacts on the most vulnerable in the UK). Such costs would be shouldered by ordinary people even as the higher education sector benefit through higher profits resulting from more tuition fees.

28. A graduate work route which sees a large share going into unskilled work is not, by and large, attracting the ‘best and brightest’, although it would increase immigration. There would be no annual cap on visas issued so the numbers could easily run out of control, particularly in light of the government’s other commitment to increase the number of non-UK university students in the UK from around 480,000 in the most recent year to 600,000 by the end of the decade – said to be the purpose of the new route.

C) Unravels progress in tackling abuse of study visa route

29. Governments have spent much of the last decade attempting to tackle the abuse that accompanied Labour’s weakening of arrangements surrounding student visas in 2009. Such abuse was rife and was well-documented, including by the National Audit Office and former Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration (for examples of this see Annex A below). Closure of this former post-study work route in 2012 should be viewed in this context. Between 2010 and 2015, government acted effectively to tackle abuse both by bogus students and lower quality institutions. Reviving the route would undermine such progress.

30. A key component to such abuse was the subversion of the study route as a proxy route of entry by those who simply wished to enter the UK to work and, eventually settle. The National Audit Office found that 40,000-50,000 of those who entered with study visas in the late 2010s might have come to work rather than to study. ^[27] Meanwhile, about 27,000 of those who originally arrive on a study visa go on to settle on an annual basis.^[28] This despite the fact that, as a government minister recently stated, the study route is a ‘temporary route for the purpose of undertaking a course of study within the UK, rather than to settle’.^[29]

31.One of the UK’s considerable global advantages in this field has been the high quality of education provided. Reanimating this deeply flawed route would encourage universities to take the focus away from maintaining, and in some cases improving, course quality by substituting the incentive of an indirect route to work (including into low-paid jobs) and possibly settle. To guard against this, the government should listen again to the MAC when it said in 2018:

Demand for UK education should not be based on work rights… A post-study work regime could become a pre-work study regime. It is important that demand for courses in the UK is built around the quality of the education offered and a reasonable opportunity to contribute to the UK as a skilled worker.^[30]

32. It is also important to bear in mind the increased risk of visa overstaying, with the number of people not being recorded as departing in line with their visa conditions having shot up from 50,000 in 2016/17 to over 90,000 in 2019/20. By creating a new route from study into work but without the previous safeguards that accompanied those switching from Tier 4 into Tier 2 skilled visas, the government is just adding to the steadily growing pressures on an immigration enforcement arm whose effectiveness has declined markedly since 2018 (as detailed recently by the National Audit Office^[31], the House of Commons Public Accounts Select Committee and the former Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration.^[32]

D) The route is unnecessary

33. Prior to the Covid pandemic hitting in Spring 2020, university visa applications were at a record high and graduate work arrangements already ample. This suggests that the addition of this route is entirely unnecessary in order to attract a growing number of overseas university students to the UK. Surveys suggest that having good graduate employment options is an important factor in the decisions of prospective applicants. However, these already existed.

Applications for visas to study at UK universities were up by 14% on the year (year to March 2020), although they have fallen during the Covid pandemic.
Before introduction of this route via March 2021 immigration rules changes, there had not been, nor had there ever been, a limit on the number of genuine overseas students.
Nor was there a limit on the number of foreign graduates who were able to stay and work in a graduate occupation that paid the required salary level.
Non-EU students already had a period of up to six months in which to find skilled work (by applying for a Tier 2 visa) but only about 10,000 or less did so per year, suggesting the genuine demand for genuinely skilled work in the UK among overseas graduates was limited.

Conclusions

34. Turning the clock back and reviving the deeply defective post-study work route would make the present situation even more difficult for UK jobseekers, particularly those with lower-level qualifications, at a time of acute economic crisis. It would also push down or hold back wages for those on the lowest pay. Such a move would increase immigration into low-paid work while failing to select ‘best and brightest’ in the absence of proper safeguards such as requiring applicants to have a job offer or an annual cap on numbers. Although governments since 2010 previously had a strong track record of tackling abuse of the student route, this new visa risks ‘unlearning’ these crucial lessons and unravelling the benefits resulting from greater compliance and oversight (see Annex A below). The former route was closed in 2012 for good reason. The MAC has specifically warned against its re-opening. The government is recklessly ignoring this advice.

Annex A – Previous abuse of the Tier 4 route

Between 2010 and 2015, the previous government had a positive story to tell about its record on study immigration because it acted effectively to tackle abuse both by bogus students and by lower quality institutions. Such abuse was well-documented, including by the National Audit Office and the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration. Some examples are listed below:

In 2009/10, there were so many dubious student visa applications that consulate posts had to be closed for several months.
The National Audit Office (NAO) found in 2012 that the HO implemented Tier 4 with flaws ‘which were predictable and could have been avoided’.
In the same report, the NAO said that because ‘the UKBA implemented Tier 4 before the key controls were in place’, 40,000-50,000 of those who entered might have come to work rather than to study.^[33]
The NAO also pointed to serious shortcomings in enforcement action against students found to be overstaying or working in breach of their visa conditions.
A 2011 Home Office study showed that around 60% of students from major source countries such as India, Bangladesh and Nigeria should have been refused a visa to study on credibility grounds.^[34]
In May 2019 the NAO said it was reasonable to conclude that there had been cheating on a large scale at two English language test centres. The HO said the case was indicative of significant organised fraud.

To respond, the government took a range of necessary steps:

More stringent sponsorship regulations – From 2011, education institutions needed to acquire Highly Trusted Sponsor status and thus be subject to a stricter set of compliance rules and be accredited by an appropriate education body. Since then around 1,000 bogus colleges have been shut down.
Tougher evidentiary oversight – In 2010, the HO implemented a mandatory system for unique electronic sponsorship documents (confirmations of acceptance for studies) through which sponsors must report non-attendance, academic progress and student contact details.
Tighter English language requirements introduced for those studying below University level. Universities retain discretion to assess language competence.
Some interviews reintroduced – In 2012 a “Credibility Interview” was introduced^[35] to allow Entry Clearance Officers to request an interview to assess genuineness if there were concerns about intentions to study or supporting documentation (e.g. 9,700 such interviews were conducted in 2013/14).
Restrictions on dependants introduced – from 2011, only those studying at postgraduate level for longer than 12 months were permitted dependants (see Annex A below for more detail).
More stringent regulations concerning work rights – Only those studying at a university or a publicly funded further education college could seek employment and the number of hours that a student could work was made dependent upon the level of their course.

Footnotes

Data for 2018/19 suggest that around 140,000 EU domiciled students and 340,000 non-EU domiciled students were enrolled in higher education institutions in the UK (Higher Education Statistics Agency).
Home Office press statement, 4 March 2021, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/graduate-route-to-open-to-international-students-on-1-july-2021
YouGov survey results, Fieldwork: 20-21 February 2020, URL: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ox… vey%20results%20-%20immigration.pdf
Migration Watch UK press release, December 2019, URL: https://migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/598/nearly-three-q… le-cap-on-work-permits-after-brexit
See Migration Watch UK summary, May 2020, URL: https://migrationwatchuk.org/news/2020/05/28/77-want-interest… ng-to-bring-in-more-overseas-labour
MAC, July 2012, p.2, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… /257235/analysis-of-the-impacts.pdf, MAC report, Work immigration and the labour market, June 2016, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… migration_and_the_labour_market.pdf, p. 22, and MAC report on EEA migration, September 2018, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… ta/file/741926/Final_EEA_report.PDF
Ibid. MAC 2012, p.10.
Migration Watch UK brief, February 2021, URL: https://migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/488/what-action-i… rnment-taking-to-tackle-overstaying
Home Secretary, Oral statement to Parliament, March 2011, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-student-visas-home-secretarys-statement
MAC analysis of Tier 1 of PBS, Dec 2009.
Statement by the Home Secretary in Parliament, 21 March 2011, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-student-visas-home-secretarys-statement
UK Border Agency, Occasional Paper 91, see Figure 4, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… tachment_data/file/115913/occ91.pdf
Oral evidence by Phil Taylor, Regional Director, Scotland and Northern Ireland, UK Border Agency, to House of Commons Scottish Affairs Committee on Wednesday 11 May 2011, URL: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmscotaf/uc912-ii/uc91201.htm
MAC report on international students, 2018, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… _students_report_published_v1.1.pdf
Home Office impact assessment, April 2020, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… ImmSSC_Billl_v21_with_Signature.pdf
Home Office visa statistics, year to March 2020, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-y… y-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-study
Resolution Foundation, February 2021, URL: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2021/02/Long-covid-in-the-labour-market.pdf
ONS, Graduates’ labour market outcomes during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: occupational switches and skill mismatch, March 2021, URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/emp… switchesandskillmismatch/2021-03-08
IPPR report, From Learning to Earning, Understanding the school-to-work transition in London, URL: https://www.ippr.org/publications/from-learning-to-earning-unders… school-to-work-transition-in-london
MAC, ‘Analysis of the Impacts of Migration’, July 2012, p.2, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… /257235/analysis-of-the-impacts.pdf
MAC, July 2012, p.2, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… /257235/analysis-of-the-impacts.pdf
MAC report on ‘Work immigration and the labour market’, 2016, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… migration_and_the_labour_market.pdf
Professor Alan Manning to Commons Home Affairs Committee, October 2018, URL: http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/e… ostbrexit-migration/oral/91576.html
For an example see a March 2019 report published by the Higher Education Policy Institute in collaboration with London Economics and Kaplan International Pathways.
MWUK, June 2019, URL: https://news.migrationwatch.org.uk/2019/06/20/why-should-we-allow… duates-to-stay-on-and-stack-shelves
Nick Timothy, Conservative Home, Dec. 2015, URL: http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/12/nick-timoth… the-autumn-statement-proved-it.html
“Based on college enrolment rates and changes in application patterns, the NAO estimates that, in its first year of operation, between 40,000 and 50,000 individuals may have entered the UK via Tier 4 to work rather than to study.” URL: https://www.nao.org.uk/press-release/immigration-the-points-based-system-student-route-2/ Report: https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/10121827.pdf
Home Office, Migrant Journey: 2019 report, May 2020, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/migrant-journey-2019-report
Written parliamentary answer, March 2021, URL: https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2021-03-04/%31%36%33%32%38%38
MAC report on international students, January 2018, Chair’s Foreword, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… _students_report_published_v1.1.pdf
NAO report on immigration enforcement, June 2020, URL: https://www.nao.org.uk/report/immigration-enforcement/
Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, ‘Inspection of the Home Office’s approach to Illegal Working’, 2019, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/an-inspection-of-the-h… offices-approach-to-illegal-working
“Based on college enrolment rates and changes in application patterns, the NAO estimates that, in its first year of operation, between 40,000 and 50,000 individuals may have entered the UK via Tier 4 to work rather than to study.” URL: https://www.nao.org.uk/press-release/immigration-the-points-based-system-student-route-2/ Report: https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/10121827.pdf
Home Office, Occasional Paper 104, July 2012, URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste… achment_data/file/115920/occ104.pdf
Home Office statement, July 2012, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-targeted-interviews-to-stop-fake-students

MW417 : How many students have been granted settlement in recent years? | Migration Watch UK

Migration Watch — Fri, 21 Jul 2017 13:29:00 +0000

Summary

1. A major analysis of migrants’ journeys through the immigration system reveals that in the last seven years (2009-2015) almost 200,000 grants of settlement were made to non-EU migrants who originally arrived through the student route. These findings show that students are not all temporary residents, as is often suggested, but many are in fact remaining in the country permanently. This is therefore compelling evidence to continue to count students in the net migration target, since they undoubtedly add to population growth.

Student Net Migration

2. There have been calls for students to be removed from the net migration statistics for ‘policy purposes’, which seems to mean that they should be excluded from the government target to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands. However, there is some confusion about the extent to which students are currently adding to net migration.

3. Previously, net migration of non-EU students, as recorded by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) was extremely high (175,000 in the year ending December 2010 when the Coalition government came to power) because the number of students recorded as leaving the country was in single figures. Migration Watch UK raised concerns with the ONS and the Home Office that the IPS was failing to adequately capture departing students and as a result the IPS questionnaire was amended in 2012 to better capture students leaving the country. The data from the new IPS question is now suggesting that net migration of non-EU students has averaged 75,000 in the last five years. It should be a priority for the government to ensure that these statistics are reliable.

4. From April 2015 the Home Office has been collecting the passenger information of those who depart the country. No data has yet been released however a leaked but unconfirmed report has suggested that only 1% of students overstay their visa. Yet the issue is whether or not students add to our population whether they remain legally or otherwise.

The Migrant Journey Reports

5. A major Home Office study carried out over seven years has established migrants’ journeys through the immigration system. They have taken those granted settlement and traced their journey back through the system to establish the routes under which they originally arrived.

6. The analysis reveals that over the period 2009-2015, 191,000 non-EU migrants who originally came through the student route were granted settlement. An average of

23,300 non-EU migrants who originally arrived on a student visa and 4,000 who arrived on a student dependant visa were granted settlement in each year. See Table below.

Table 1. Grants of settlement by year of grant, to those who originally arrived as students and student dependants, 2009-2015. Figures rounded. Source: Home Office.^[1]

Student and Student Dependants Granted Settlement by Year of Grant 2009-2015

Year of Grant	Main Applications	Dependants	Total
2009	18930	5350	24280
2010	24640	5760	30400
2011	23640	4280	27920
2012	20070	3530	23600
2013	28770	3510	32280
2014	23300	2530	25830
2015	23950	2850	26800
Average 09-15	23300	4000	27300

Changes to Student Rules

7. The student route underwent rapid change under the Coalition government in response to substantial abuse in previous years. More stringent requirements were introduced and students became subject to an interview as part of their application process. In addition over 800 bogus colleges were closed.

8. Secondly, the Post Study Work route which had allowed students two years to remain and find work at any pay and any skill level was closed. Its closure may impact on future student settlement but students can still settle if they switch into graduate level work or into the family category.

Conclusions

9. The Migrant Journey statistics show that settlement was granted to almost 200,000 non-EU citizens who originally arrived in the UK as a student or the dependant of a student. Students have therefore undoubtedly added to population growth and must therefore be included in the net migration statistics.

Footnotes

Table MJ_06 available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_d… sa-and-leave-status-2015-tables.ods

Students have added 200,000 to the permanent population in the last seven years | Migration Watch UK

Migration Watch — Fri, 21 Jul 2017 13:29:00 +0000

The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee has called on the government to improve the statistics on the number of students who leave the country and then for them to be removed from net migration ‘for public policy purposes’.

This is despite the fact that a report issued today by Migration Watch UK reveals that in the last seven years almost 200,000 grants of settlement were made to non-EU citizens who originally arrived through the student route.

The report is based on the findings of official Home Office analysis of migrants’ journeys through the immigration system which established that an average of 27,000 grants of settlement were made to people who arrived as students or student dependants in each of the years 2009-2015.

There is no doubt that the statistics on the number of students who remain in the country should be improved and the government should make use of the available exit check data. However, once we have an accurate picture of the contribution of students to net migration, they should remain in the target. Students have, after all, comprised half (600,000) of all non-EU inflow in the last five years, which has totalled 1.18 million.

Calls for students to be removed “for policy purposes” from the net migration statistics and the government target have relied on the claim that students are temporary migrants and therefore do not add to population growth. However the findings of today’s report underline the need for their inclusion since significant numbers remain for long periods and indeed go on to settle.

They must therefore be included to maintain the integrity of net migration statistics as an objective measure of population change as a result of international migration. It is also important to avoid any suspicion that politicians or academics are seeking to fiddle the figures.

Commenting, Lord Green of Deddington, Chairman of Migration Watch UK said:

“It would be absurd to remove students from the net migration target when close to 200,000 grants of settlement in recent years were to former students. Graduates are no doubt valuable to our economy but, with immigration driving our population at the fastest annual rate for nearly 70 years, we must have an honest assessment of the contribution of students who stay on.“

Migration Watch UK press comment on reports that foreign students may be separated from the net migration totals | Migration Watch UK

Migration Watch — Fri, 21 Apr 2017 13:29:00 +0000

April 21, 2017

Commenting, Mr Alp Mehmet, Vice Chairman of Migration Watch UK, said:

“The student route has undoubtedly been a major source of abuse in the past although it has been tightened in recent years. If student numbers are to be shown separately in future it is essential that they be published alongside the net migration figures on every occasion.“

MW407 : Summary of the Tier 5 (Youth Mobility) Scheme | Migration Watch UK

Migration Watch — Tue, 18 Apr 2017 13:29:00 +0000

1. Tier 5 is for those allowed to work in the UK for a limited period of time to satisfy primarily non-economic objectives. It is split into two routes – Youth Mobility and Temporary Workers. The Youth Mobility visa was introduced in November 2008 to replace the Working Holiday visa and allows participants to live and work in the UK for up to two years. Holders must be aged between 18 and 30, have proof of £1,890 in savings and be from one of the following countries:

Australia
Canada
Japan
Monaco
New Zealand
Hong Kong
South Korea
Taiwan

2. The number of Youth Mobility visas issued has increased by 11% in the period 2009-2016. 50% of the Youth Mobility visas issued in 2016 were to Australians, followed by 18% for New Zealanders and 15% for Canadians. Tables 1 and 2 indicate the numbers involved.

Table 1: Tier 5 (Youth Mobility) visas granted to main applicants, 2008-2016. Home Office Visa Statistics, Q3 2016.

2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
376	20,083	20,720	20,652	19,624	20,857	23,525	25,321	22,342

Table 2: Tier 5 (Youth Mobility) visas issued in 2016 by country. Home Office Visa Statistics, Q3, 2016.

Country
Australia	11,265
New Zealand	3,954
Canada	3,265
Hong Kong	1,191
Taiwan	1,034
South Korea	954
Japan	673
Monaco	1

3. This visa does not lead to settlement. Applicants must pay the healthcare surcharge.

4. People with dependent children are not eligible to apply. This includes those who have children who live with them or children for whom they are financially responsible. Also ineligible are those who have already been in the UK under the scheme or under the former Working Holiday category.

5. Citizens of Hong Kong and South Korea must get a certificate of sponsorship reference number before they apply. This is a unique reference number that holds information about the job they will do along with personal details. It is not a paper document. Applicants must apply for their visa within three months of receiving their certificate of sponsorship.

6. See the Home Office conditions for this visa.

Migration Watch UK press comment on Times report regarding international student migration | Migration Watch UK

Migration Watch — Thu, 13 Oct 2016 13:29:00 +0000

Commenting, Lord Green of Deddington, Chairman of Migration Watch UK said:

“This seems to be a partial leak of a first analysis of the exit checks which came into force eighteen months ago. At this stage it is quite unclear what the reported figure of 1% refers to. Indeed it is impossible to draw any conclusions without knowing the full extent of the analysis.

The fact remains that there is no evidence in the International Passenger Survey for the departure of tens of thousands of foreign students. There are only two explanations for this. Either they are in fact staying on in huge numbers or the IPS on which all immigration numbers are based is seriously unreliable.

It is essential that the Home office discloses the full extent of their analysis so that the immigration statistics can be verified. It is in everyone’s interests, including the university sector, that this be resolved.”