With much of the global media focused on Iran, another humanitarian crisis is largely ignored. The civil war in Sudan, now approaching its third anniversary, has displaced some 15 million people – nearly one third of the Sudanese population. Sudan’s neighbours are buckling under the surge of refugees. And yet, for most people in Britain, Sudan barely registers.

It should. This week, the head of the UN’s International Organisation for Migration in Sudan warned that the crisis has reached a tipping point comparable to the early stages of the Syrian civil war.

In 2011, displacement from Syria began to build. Migration routes formed. Then, four years later, nearly a million people arrived in Europe in a single year.

The parallels with Syria and what is happening in Sudan are not exact, but the trajectory is unmistakable. As neighbouring states come under increasing pressure from mass displacement of people, the pressure does not dissipate, it spreads.

The IOM’s chief of mission, Mohamed Refaat, has said that unless serious efforts are made to resolve the conflict, “you might see more and more displacement entering the cross-border and beyond.”

In the two or three years prior to the 2015/16 deluge of asylum seekers, the EU, of which Britain was still a part, should have known that a mass movement of people would follow upheaval and conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, as well as in Africa. And yet, everyone was caught totally unawares in 2015. Are we, once again, in the process of making the same catastrophic mistakes?

This time, there are two major conflicts underway involving countries with a combined population of around 150 million people. If only 5% were to head in our direction, we would be looking at 7.5 million people making their way towards us in the next few years.

As our laws stand, anyone from Iran and all of Sudan who makes it to the UK or the EU in the next few years and claims asylum will likely get it. While those not granted asylum or other refuge will doubtless still end up staying.

Some 4.5 million Sudanese people have already fled across borders into Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Sudan and even into Libya (countries which can barely cope with their own problems). The UN’s 2026 refugee response plan warns bluntly that without adequate support, the risks of onward movement, including dangerous Mediterranean crossings, remain high. Libya, of course, has long been a staging post, mainly, for African refugees seeking to enter Europe.

There have been some signs that even this Labour Government is beginning to grasp the scale of the risks we face. The Home Secretary’s “visa brake”, which came into force this week, suspends student visas for Sudanese nationals following a surge in asylum claims from those entering Britain through legal routes. Home Office data show asylum applications by students from Sudan (and three other countries affected by conflict and economic turmoil, Cameroon, Myanmar and Afghanistan) rose by over 470% between 2021 and 2025, with many then claiming asylum support at taxpayer expense. Some 16,000 nationals from the four countries are currently living in Britain courtesy of the taxpayer – over 6,000 in hotels.

I recently wrote in support of the Home Secretary’s small, but necessary, first steps to reform the immigration system with a view to tackling abuse, delay access to welfare and stop the prioritisation of recent arrivals ahead of UK nationals for housing and services. What a pity her backbenchers, it seems, led by Tony Vaughan MP for Folkestone and Hythe, have other ideas.

However, the visa brake addresses only a fraction of the problem. If conflict in Sudan continues to escalate – and all the evidence suggests it will – the eventual pressure on Britain’s borders will grow from multiple direction, including: small boat crossings, onward movement from the Continent, and asylum claims through legal routes.

As a country, we have always been generous, with a proud record for offering protection to those who need it most. But generosity can’t go beyond what we can afford and our resources allow. Ultimately, it is the already hard-pressed taxpayer that foots the bill.

Asylum and humanitarian protection support consumes billions every year. The public purse is already stretched to breaking point. We simply cannot absorb another flood of refugees on the scale that is very likely underway, while those who have been granted or are seeking asylum, or who enjoy humanitarian protection,  are on the way to costing the exchequer a possible £80 billion over their lifetimes. How many hospitals, doctors, nurses and aircraft carriers does that add up to?

The visa brake is a start, but not nearly enough. As for illegal Channel crossings, the reforms most needed are those that will serve to deter. Nothing that the government has done since it came into office 18 months ago will do that. Crises like the ongoing one in Sudan merit our compassion; but they also require realism and not losing sight of the needs of the British people, who face increasing demands on their own hard-earned income.