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	<title>ECHR &#8211; Migration Watch UK</title>
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	<link>https://www.migrationwatchuk.org</link>
	<description>Independent UK-based think tank focused on immigration and asylum policy research</description>
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	<title>ECHR &#8211; Migration Watch UK</title>
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		<title>May 1st 2026: ONS warns of rampant population growth, and leading research body publishes draft bill for ECHR withdrawal</title>
		<link>https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/may-1st-2026-ons-warns-of-rampant-population-growth-and-leading-research-body-publishes-draft-bill-for-echr-withdrawal/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Migration Watch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2026 17:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Newsletter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECHR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ONS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prosperity Institute]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Somali]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[The ONS published its 2024-based National Population Projections this week, confirming what Migration Watch has warned for nearly two decades: without a change in policy, the UK's population will surge past 70 million by the mid 2030s, driven entirely by migration.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph"><strong><em>T</em></strong><em><strong>his is a preview of Migration Watch’s free weekly newsletter. Please consider signing up to the newsletter directly,&nbsp;<a href="https://migrationwatchuk.org/news/category/newsletters/">you can do so here</a>&nbsp;and will receive an email copy of the newsletter every week as soon as it is released</strong></em>.</p>



<p class="has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph"><strong>ONS POPULATION PROJECTIONS WARN OF RAMPANT GROWTH</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The ONS published its 2024-based National Population Projections this week, <a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/only-severe-cuts-to-immigration-will-stop-population-hitting-70-million-well-within-25-years-migration-watch-uk/"><strong>confirming what Migration Watch has warned for nearly two decades</strong></a>: without a change in policy, the UK&#8217;s population will surge past 70 million by the mid 2030s, driven entirely by migration. From mid-2026, deaths are projected to exceed births every year, meaning Britain&#8217;s natural population is already in decline. All future growth is attributable to immigration. The projections also expose how the headline &#8220;net migration&#8221; figure obscures the true scale of demographic change, with millions of individual movements occurring each year beneath a single residual number. <br><br>Read our analysis here:<br><a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/analysis-of-ons-national-population-projections"><strong>Migration Watch Analysis of ONS Population Projection Report </strong></a></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Key stats:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>70 million UK residents within 7 years:</strong> Under the ONS “High Migration” scenario (which actually falls below recent experience) the UK population reaches 70 million within seven years and approaches 92 million by 2124.</li>



<li><strong>The British-born population is in decline: </strong>From mid-2026, deaths will exceed births every year under all scenarios. The ONS projects Britain’s population growth will come entirely from migration.</li>



<li><strong>“Net migration” masks massive churn:</strong> Under the High scenario, 1.4 million people arrive and 928,000 leave annually, or over 2.3 million individual movements per year. This will place huge strain on infrastructure and make it harder to integrate new arrivals.</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>These projections from the Office for National Statistics are astonishing.</strong> Do share our report on social media, and with friends and family.</p>



<p class="has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph"><strong>SOMALI KNIFEMAN ARRESTED AFTER STABBINGS IN GOLDERS GREEN</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A 45-year-old Somali-born British passport holder named Essa Suleiman was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after allegedly stabbing two Jewish men in Golders Green on Wednesday. According to reports, the suspect, who was quickly apprehended by police, has a history of violent behaviour and reportedly may also be linked to a knife incident in Southwark the same morning. The attack follows a string of antisemitic incidents. The Home Secretary has said that antisemitism in Britain is &#8220;out of control”.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This comes after an incident last week<br><a href="https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15759399/Somali-knifeman-admits-killing-pensioner.html?ns_mchannel=rss&amp;ns_campaign=1490&amp;ito=social-twitter_mailonline"><strong>involving a Somali immigrant admitting to murdering a pensioner at a Remembrance Sunday memorial service</strong></a>.</p>



<p class="has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph"><strong>PROSPERITY INSTITUTE PUBLISHES DRAFT BILL FOR ECHR WITHDRAWAL</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Prosperity Institute has published <a href="https://www.prosperity.com/media-publications/leaving-the-european-convention-on-human-rights/"><strong>a detailed report and suggested draft Bill setting out how the UK could practically withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and repeal the Human Rights Act 1998</strong></a>. The report is endorsed by Danny Kruger MP and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg. The proposals include provisions for dealing with Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement, pending court cases, and preserving law enforcement cooperation with the EU.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Migration Watch has long argued that withdrawal from the ECHR is essential to allow the UK to introduce legislation an measures to secure our borders and remove those without a right to be here. This cannot happen soon enough.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong><em>T</em><em><strong>his is a preview of Migration Watch’s free weekly newsletter. Please consider signing up to the newsletter directly,&nbsp;<a href="https://migrationwatchuk.org/news/category/newsletters/">you can do so here</a>&nbsp;and will receive an email copy of the newsletter every week as soon as it is released</strong></em>.</strong></p>
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