{"id":95,"date":"2013-08-20T17:20:51","date_gmt":"2013-08-20T16:20:51","guid":{"rendered":"\/2013\/08\/20\/the-migration-matters-trust-and-their-estimate-of-migration-from-bulgaria-and-romania\/"},"modified":"2013-08-20T17:20:51","modified_gmt":"2013-08-20T16:20:51","slug":"the-migration-matters-trust-and-their-estimate-of-migration-from-bulgaria-and-romania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.org\/news\/2013\/08\/20\/the-migration-matters-trust-and-their-estimate-of-migration-from-bulgaria-and-romania\/","title":{"rendered":"The Migration Matters Trust and their estimate of migration from Bulgaria and Romania"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On 8<sup>th<\/sup> August the Migration Matters<br \/>\nTrust (MMT), chaired by Barbara Roche and co-chaired by Gavin Barwell MP<br \/>\npublished their estimate of immigration from Romania and Bulgaria which they<br \/>\nput at 20,000 for 2014.<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftn1\">[1]<\/a>,<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftn2\">[2]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On 18 August an article in The Observer quoted Atul<br \/>\nHatwal the Director of the MMT as saying that higher claims were \u201cunfounded and<br \/>\ninflammatory\u201d.<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftn3\">[3]<\/a>&#0160;&#0160; This, of course, deliberately conflated our<br \/>\nestimate of 50,000 with much higher estimates mentioned by some back bench MPs<br \/>\nwith no connection with Migration Watch. &#0160;&#0160;This<br \/>\ndid not prevent Mr Hatwal from suggesting that our \u201canti migrant campaigns\u201d were<br \/>\nbased on \u201cprejudice\u201d rather than evidence. <\/p>\n<p>We dismiss such obvious smears.&#0160; We do not, of course, run anti migrant<br \/>\ncampaigns and we are glad to stand by our estimate which is fully set out in<br \/>\nour Briefing paper<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftn4\">[4]<\/a>. &#0160;<\/p>\n<p>Our central estimate is that the population in the<br \/>\nUK of migrants from Romania and Bulgaria combined will increase by 50,000 a<br \/>\nyear for the next five years. This will be the figure recorded in the Office<br \/>\nNational Statistics Annual Population Survey which gives a breakdown of the UK<br \/>\npopulation by country of birth.&#0160; It is<br \/>\nrecognised by both the ONS and Migration Watch that the net migration figures<br \/>\n(LTIM) based on the International Passenger Survey have historically<br \/>\nunder-recorded net migration from Eastern Europe<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftn5\">[5]<\/a>.<br \/>\nIf this pattern continues, the recorded LTIM data for Bulgarians and Romanians<br \/>\nwill be about half the increase in the annual population i.e. around 25,000.<\/p>\n<p>This important distinction between recorded<br \/>\nimmigration and actual population increase seems to have been completely missed<br \/>\nby the Migration Matters Trust who have come up with a figure of 20,000. It is<br \/>\nnot clear what this figure is intended to refer to but if it is the LTIM data<br \/>\nthen it is only slightly different from our own.<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftn6\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>However, the thinking behind the MMT estimate is<br \/>\nvery weak indeed.&#0160;&#0160; It is based on the<br \/>\nthesis, buried in a footnote, that the proportion of migrants from Romania and Bulgaria<br \/>\nwho choose the UK<br \/>\nas a destination will not be affected by the opening of our labour market.&#0160; This is absurd given the increase in<br \/>\nmigration already observed and our experience with the A8.&#0160; The former was discounted by the MMT on the<br \/>\ngrounds that this included those here on short term seasonal work, such as the SAWS<br \/>\nscheme.&#0160;&#0160; That, however, is unlikely as<br \/>\nthe Labour Force Survey is only a survey of private households so it would not<br \/>\npick up those in communal accommodation as most such workers are.<\/p>\n<p>It is true that, on this occasion, other countries<br \/>\nsuch as Germany and The&#0160; Netherlands will open their labour<br \/>\nmarkets.&#0160; It is also the case, however,<br \/>\nthat there are nearly one million Romanians in Spain<br \/>\nand a similar number in Italy.&#0160; There is very high unemployment in both those<br \/>\ncountries.&#0160; Indeed, the Spanish<br \/>\ngovernment reported to the EU Commission in 2011 that 30% of Romanian migrants<br \/>\nwere unemployed.&#0160; It is surely quite<br \/>\npossible that some will re-emigrate to Northern European countries. <\/p>\n<p>It seems as though the MMT are trying to set up a<br \/>\nbench mark around the absurd figure of 300,000 in 2014 so as to claim that any<br \/>\nlower figure proves that \u201cthe opponents of migration will have been exposed as<br \/>\ndoing nothing more than to pursue a partisan and divisive political agenda.\u201d&#0160; This is simply ludicrous. <\/p>\n<p>&#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; &#0160; 20 August 2013 &#0160;&#0160;<\/p>\n<p>&#0160;<\/p>\n<p>&#0160;<\/p>\n<p>&#0160;<\/p>\n<p>&#0160;<\/p>\n<div><\/p>\n<hr size=\"1\" \/>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftnref1\"><\/a>&#0160;[1]<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.migrationmatterstrust.co.uk\/node\/18\">http:\/\/www.migrationmatterstrust.co.uk\/node\/18<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> MMT have excluded any SAWS workers who decide to stay on. However, these workers would not be counted as immigrants in the LTIM stats because they only came for six months. If they stayed they might later add to the annual population estimate but the original purpose of their arrival&#0160; is not a reason to exclude them. They still add to the pressures on public services.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/2013\/aug\/18\/estimate-romanians-bulgarians-unfounded\">http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/2013\/aug\/18\/estimate-romanians-bulgarians-unfounded<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.org\/briefing-paper\/4.17\">http:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.org\/briefing-paper\/4.17<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/Jack%20Mason\/SkyDrive\/Migrationwatch%20files\/Third%20Sector\/Migration%20Matters\/Response%20to%20the%20MMT%20(Rev%204).doc#_ftnref5\">[5]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.co.uk\/briefing-paper\/9.32\">http:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.co.uk\/briefing-paper\/9.32<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>&#0160;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On 8th August the Migration Matters Trust (MMT), chaired by Barbara Roche and co-chaired by Gavin Barwell MP published their estimate of immigration from Romania and Bulgaria which they put at 20,000 for 2014.[1],[2]. On 18 August an article in The Observer quoted Atul Hatwal the Director of the MMT as saying that higher claims [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,15,7,5,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-95","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-balanced-migration","category-current-affairs","category-european-union","category-migration-trends","category-office-for-national-statistics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Migration Matters Trust and their estimate of migration from Bulgaria and Romania - Migration Watch UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.org\/news\/2013\/08\/20\/the-migration-matters-trust-and-their-estimate-of-migration-from-bulgaria-and-romania\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Migration Matters Trust and their estimate of migration from Bulgaria and Romania - Migration Watch UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On 8th August the Migration Matters Trust (MMT), chaired by Barbara Roche and co-chaired by Gavin Barwell MP published their estimate of immigration from Romania and Bulgaria which they put at 20,000 for 2014.[1],[2]. 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