{"id":141,"date":"2013-01-17T00:30:00","date_gmt":"2013-01-17T00:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"\/2013\/01\/17\/immigration-from-romania-and-bulgaria\/"},"modified":"2013-01-17T00:30:00","modified_gmt":"2013-01-17T00:30:00","slug":"immigration-from-romania-and-bulgaria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.org\/news\/2013\/01\/17\/immigration-from-romania-and-bulgaria\/","title":{"rendered":"Immigration from Romania and Bulgaria"},"content":{"rendered":"

Immigration from Romania and
\nBulgaria could amount to 50,000 a year in the first five years.  That is
\nthe conclusion of a study issued by Migration Watch UK today<\/a>.<\/em>  250,000 is the population of a
\ncity of the size of Plymouth or Newcastle. That number could be
\nconsiderably higher if there were to be a movement of Roma to the UK or if some
\nof the nearly one million Romanians in both Spain and Italy should transfer to
\nBritain.<\/p>\n

The government have so far
\ndeclined to publish their own estimate. They are very conscious of the
\nprevious government\u2019s catastrophic under estimate of immigration from Poland
\nand other East European countries in 2004 which Migrationwatch described at the
\ntime as \u201calmost worthless\u201d.<\/p>\n

This time round, with the
\nexperience of the East Europeans in mind, it is possible to offer a ball park
\nestimate of likely immigration from Romania and Bulgaria.  As it happens
\ntheir income per head is about 1\/5th<\/sup> of that of the UK \u2013 as was the
\ncase for Poland in 2004.  Furthermore their youth unemployment is very
\nhigh as was also the case in Poland when they joined the EU and both countries
\nnow have established communities in Britain.<\/p>\n

The major difference this time
\nis that all other EU countries will also have to open their labour markets to
\nRomania and Bulgaria in January 2014.  Fifteen smaller countries and Italy
\nhave already done so. As for larger countries, with youth unemployment in
\nSpain at 56%, Italy at 37% and France at 27% it would seem that only Germany at
\n8% and the Netherlands at 9.7% are likely destinations for Romanian and
\nBulgarian migrants. Britain, with youth unemployment at 20%, is nonetheless an
\nattractive destination partly because of its flexible labour market and partly
\nbecause of the ease of access to its benefits system.<\/p>\n

After examining three
\ndifferent methods of estimating the likely inflow of migrants from Romania and
\nBulgaria, Migration Watch UK has concluded that they would add between 30,000
\nand 70,000 to our population in each of the next 5 years \u2013 giving a central
\nestimate of 50,000 per year. Claims in Parliament<\/a> that there could be \u201can increase of some
\none third of a million over present levels, possibly within two years\u201d seem
\nexaggerated. However, the number of Roma who might come to Britain is a
\nwild card.<\/p>\n

A further wild card is the
\npresence of nearly 1 million Romanians in Spain among whom nearly 1\/3rd<\/sup>
\nof a million workers were unemployed in 2011. Even if they had access to
\nunemployment pay in Spain their benefits would run out after one year. There
\nmust, therefore, be a significant risk that they will move to Britain where
\naccess to benefits does not depend on contributions \u2013 only on \u201chabitual
\nresidence\u201d which, in practice, is easily acquired. <\/p>\n

One finding of the analysis is
\nthat the International Passenger Survey, the basis of the official immigration
\nstatistics, only picked up half of the East European immigration to the
\nUK. If this is repeated the official figure for net immigration, which
\nthe government are committed to reducing to tens of thousands, would be
\nincreased by only 25,000 rather than 50,000 a year.<\/p>\n

Commenting, Sir Andrew Green<\/a>,
\nChairman of Migrationwatch said \u201cIt is not good enough to duck making an
\nestimate of immigration from Romania and Bulgaria. It is likely to be on
\na scale that will have significant consequences for housing and public
\nservices. It will also add further to the competition which young British
\nworkers already face. We have therefore produced our own estimate as a
\ncontribution to an important debate which must include the ease with which
\nmigrants to the UK can currently access the welfare state\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Immigration from Romania and Bulgaria could amount to 50,000 a year in the first five years.  That is the conclusion of a study issued by Migration Watch UK today.  250,000 is the population of a city of the size of Plymouth or Newcastle. That number could be considerably higher if there were to be a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,7,22,4,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-employment","category-european-union","category-family","category-health","category-welfare-benefits"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nImmigration from Romania and Bulgaria - Migration Watch UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.migrationwatchuk.org\/news\/2013\/01\/17\/immigration-from-romania-and-bulgaria\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Immigration from Romania and Bulgaria - Migration Watch UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Immigration from Romania and Bulgaria could amount to 50,000 a year in the first five years.  That is the conclusion of a study issued by Migration Watch UK today.  250,000 is the population of a city of the size of Plymouth or Newcastle. 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