No-deal motion suggests Theresa May is set on trying to make it third time lucky
In a risky move, Theresa May's no-deal motion seeks to channel the vote back towards another tilt at her deal.
Wednesday 13 March 2019 08:14, UK
This is an epic constitutional, diplomatic, political and now economic crisis for which there is no simple or predictable route through.
On Wednesday we will learn more about what could be the most significant economic upheaval to our global trade in decades - the publication of no-deal tariffs to be applied by the end of the month if there is no withdrawal agreement.
MPs will then vote to defeat the idea of a no-deal Brexit.
Astonishingly, the prime minister does not have the authority to whip this vote - unprecedented on any half important issue, let alone the fundamental constitutional issue of this administration, which will have irreversible consequences for decades.
"This is a very time limited administration" with "very limited authority", Sir Bernard Jenkin told Sky News after the vote.
For the first ever time the European Research Group allowed cameras in.
On the one hand some giddy excitement that the collective of pure Brexiteers had managed to turn some of their number from supporting the PM. On the other the likes of Steve Baker almost emotional that he had been pushed to this moment.
Would he really turn down 60-70% of what he has fought for, and risk no Brexit at all. Yes, he would, he said, because Theresa May's deal is "not Brexit".
In the end, two dozen or so Tory MPs shifted their vote, that number leaving 75 Tory rebels and a majority against the government of 149. Extraordinary in and of itself. Still catastrophic after January's even more thumping defeat.
Clearly Attorney General Geoffrey Cox judged that the backstop, even after Monday's assurances, could, potentially, "endure indefinitely".
Only if the EU could be shown to be trying to trap the UK in a customs union could the "bad faith" unilateral exit mechanism be triggered.
It was not enough for the DUP, the ERG nor the so-called "star chamber" of lawyers.
I understand that Mr Cox did not fully inform the PM or his colleagues of the killer paragraphs of his advice until cabinet - taking the wind out of the PM's sails.
Ministers now talk of chaos in government, and that is rather underlined by the inability to whip Wednesday's vote.
And yet the PM is still trying to come back with the same deal for MVP (meaningful vote 3).
The no-deal motion is not a straight up and down motion, but instead it seeks to channel the vote back towards another tilt at May's deal.
MPs complained of its "substantial trickery" and it is highly likely to be amended.
But the manoeuvre risks much worse. It risks turning widespread mistrust of Number 10 into actual anger.
A confidence vote can not be far off.
But the 48 hours are about far, far more than the fate of a prime minister or a government that is now not long for this world.