Comment

Immigration still concerns voters. In fact, it may be their biggest test for a real Brexit

Pro-Brexit demonstrators protest outside Downing Street in central London on September 5, 2018
Pro-Brexit demonstrators protest outside Downing Street Credit: ADRIAN DENNIS /AFP

Immigration was undeniably one of the main concerns driving the 17.4 million Britons to vote to leave the European Union. The only thing people can dispute is whether it was their top concern or one of many. 

There is polling evidence to suit both sides, allowing Nigel Farage and Remainers to cast it as a migration-driven decision while Brexiteers like Michael Gove depict it as a vote for sovereignty.

No matter how much voters cared about immigration in June 2016, it is tempting to believe that it has since subsided as a public concern on hearing Mr Gove wax lyrical about how much more welcoming to migrants Britain has become following the Brexit vote, which Douglas Carswell hails as a "safety valve" for voters to vent their concerns.

A quick glance at Ipsos MORI's Issues Index, which has tracked what has concerned voters' most each month, would lead you to think that the advent of Brexit means border control no longer matters to the electorate. Actually, the truth is not quite so simple.

Ipsos MORI's monitor of top issues for the British public since June 2016
Ipsos MORI's monitor of top issues for the British public since June 2016 Credit: Ipsos MORI

The importance placed by voters on Brexit is a sign that they still care about immigration, as they see it as the way to finally answer their concerns about the lack of control over the numbers coming into the United Kingdom.

The latest survey by Deltapoll makes that clear, finding that the top requirement by voters (picked by 65 per cent of those surveyed) for a "real Brexit" is complete control over borders and immigration.

By contrast, far fewer of them feel notions like leaving the customs union (34 per cent) and the transition period lasting no longer than two years (11 per cent) are necessary parts of a proper Brexit, despite Jacob Rees-Mogg and his fellow Brexiteers getting worked up about such notions.

Deltapoll's analysis of what voters want to happen for a "real Brexit"
Deltapoll's analysis of what voters want to happen for a "real Brexit" Credit: Deltapoll

The post-Brexit migration policy Theresa May offers will be key to Leave voters in deciding how well she delivers on what they voted for. That is still a work in progress, as Amber Rudd decided last summer that the decision on what should replace EU free movement should be shaped by fresh analysis about the impact of EU migration from the Migration Advisory Committee. 

In the meantime, ministers have been wrestling over whether to allow EU citizens preferential rights to live and work in the UK, as I've written about before, with new home secretary Sajid Javid pushing for that to be ruled out and Philip Hammond insistent that it should be conceded as it would be "very important for the people of Germany".

The MAC has finally come out with its conclusions, and they aren't helpful to the Chancellor's case. In their view, Brexit Britain should give "no preference" to EU citizens over those from the rest of the world. 

That should be music to Mrs May's ears, as she told BBC Panorama last night how aware she was that the British people " didn’t want a situation where they could see people coming from the European Union having those automatic rights in terms of coming here to the United Kingdom, and a set of rules for people outside the European Union. "

Her Home Secretary seems to concur, with the Times reporting today that he has told cabinet colleagues that he wants to bring in visas and limits for EU migrants post-Brexit.

That will likely be what Mrs May unveils at Conservative conference in order to reassure her Brexiteer colleagues and voters that she is delivering on what they wanted. But that vision could fail to become reality if Brexit Britain compromises in negotiating its trade deal with the EU in transition by offering to loosen up migration rules for its citizens. If it does so, how different would its migration policy be from having free movement still in place?

Voters have not stopped worrying about immigration, seeing Brexit now as the vehicle to resolve their concerns once and for all. If Mrs May wants her eventual deal to succeed, she'll have to be able to convince the British people she has taken back control of Britain's borders.

 

License this content