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Britain's population to rise by 4.4m in the next decade, official projections say
Immigration a key factor in sharp rise in the number of people ONS predict will be living in Britain, which will hit 69 million in the next decade
The population of Britain will leap by 4.4 million over the next decade to reach 69 million, according to new official projections.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that its predictions for mid-2024 were nearly a quarter of a million higher than its last forecast published two years ago, a rise largely fuelled by immigration.
The population will cross the 70 million mark in about 12 years, in mid-2027.
And in the longer-term 25-year forecast the UK's population is now expected to reach 74.3 million in 2039.
It means Britain's population is now projected to surge by nearly 10 million, or 15 per cent, from the current 65 million.
Immigration will be a factor in 68 per cent of this growth over 25 years, in relation to new arrivals and an increased birth rate by foreign-born mothers, an ONS official said.
The 440,000-a-year increase over the next 10 years will be the equivalent of adding the population of Dorset to the UK every year, said Paul Vickers of the ONS.
And the slightly lower rate over the following 15 years will be the equivalent of adding a city the size of Cardiff every year.
Guy Goodwin, ONS director of social and analysis, said: "Growth will be at a faster rate than we have seen previously, largely due to the direct impact of international migration and the indirect impact of immigration.
"Despite thus the population will also be older as those born shortly after World War Two and during the 1960s 'baby boom' reach the oldest and pensionable ages respectively."
It means Britain will overtake France to be the second largest country in Europe in 2030, and then become the largest country in Europe in 2047, overtaking Germany.
The ONS estimates that net migration will run at 198,000 a year over the 25 years.
But, crucially, the assumptions used by the ONS predict net migration will drop sharply from next year.
The Government pledged to cut net migration - the difference between those arriving and those emigrating - to the "tens of thousands".
In fact the numbers have actually risen to all-time record levels with net migration of 330,000 last year.
In the new statistics, the ONS assumes net migration will fall to 256,000 in 2016, then to 232,000 the following year.
By mid-2020 it will drop below 200,000, the ONS suggested.
Mr Goodwin admitted it was "tricky" to predict net migration levels.
"There is a risk that if we take the latest figures and project those forward we get figures that then prove to be way out," he said.
"We always look at longer term trends."
Frank Field MP and Sir Nicholas Soames MP, co-chairmen of the Cross-Party Group on Balanced Migration, said in a joint statement: "The ONS have set out in stark terms the consequences of not reducing immigration to the UK.
"They project that if net migration is 185,000 per annum our population will increase by almost five million in the next 10 years.
"Sixty eight per cent of this increase will be as a result of future migration.
"It is not in the national interest to increase our population so rapidly.
"It is not of benefit to the existing residents of the UK.
"The country will become still more overcrowded and the housing crisis even worse.
"Reducing immigration to more sustainable levels must be front and centre of government policy making."
Lord Green of Deddington, chairman of MigrationWatch UK, which campaigns for tougher border controls, said: “These projections confirm that our population will increase by more than twice the population of Birmingham in the next five years, as we have been saying.
"The prospect of nearly 10 million in 25 years underlines the huge impact on housing and public services, unless the government succeeds in bringing net migration right down."
The new ONS data found the UK population's average age would rise from 40 years in 2014 to 40.9 in 2024 and 42.9 by mid-2039.