Secondary school pupil numbers will rise by more than 600,000 by 2023 due to baby boom driven by migration

• e-mail

Senior school pupil numbers will rise by more than 600,000 by 2023 following a baby boom fuelled by high migration.

The number of secondary-age pupils is expected to increase by 21 per cent in the next five years, a Government projection states.

The rise originates from a surge in births which began in the 2000s following a period of sustained high immigration under New Labour.

Senior school pupil numbers will rise by more than 600,000 by 2023 following a baby boom fuelled by high migration

Foreign-born women have a higher birth rate than others in the UK, the Government said.

The bulge in the population has already created huge problems for primary schools, with many having to expand classes or add classrooms.

Now that problem is set to transfer to secondary schools as the children grow older.

Yesterday, Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: ‘There is already a great deal of variation across the country in the availability of school places – with some areas struggling to meet local needs, and other areas with spare capacity.

‘With a big increase in the number of secondary school pupils over the next five years it is absolutely crucial that planning is accurate and that the supply of places matches local needs. It is also essential that the Government funds schools sufficiently to ensure that they are able to provide all of these young people with the education they need and deserve.’

The forecast was released by the Government yesterday.

It showed that in 2016/17, the last year for which figures are available, there were about 3.14million pupils of secondary school age in England.

This is predicted to rise to 3.8million by 2023/24 – meaning there will be about 660,000 extra secondary-age pupils.

The data also showed the number of England’s secondaries that are full up is already rising, with around one in six currently full, or in excess of capacity. There are now 548 secondary schools that are full, or beyond capacity – 16.2 per cent in total.

This is up from 487 schools – or 14.4 per cent – in 2016. To meet future demand, an estimated 87,000 places are needed for 2021/22, the forecast said. In primary schools, pupil numbers may start to plateau beyond 2020/21, however.

The data also showed the number of England’s secondaries that are full up is already rising, with around one in six currently full, or in excess of capacity

But in the meantime, an estimated 79,000 extra places need to be created since around 23 per cent of primaries are full or running beyond capacity.

Richard Watts, chairman of the Local Government Association’s children and young people board, said: ‘Secondary school places are becoming increasingly squeezed, with more families facing growing uncertainty when trying to secure their child’s place.

‘If we’re to meet the demand for school places then councils should be given back the powers to open new maintained schools and existing academy schools should expand where required.’ School system minister Lord Agnew said: ‘Today’s statistics show that since 2010, we have created 825,000 new school places and 90,000 in the last year alone.

‘We want to continue to ensure every child is offered a world-class education, wherever they are growing up and that’s why we are investing £5.8billion to create even more good school places in the future.’

Last week it was reported that almost two-thirds of secondary schools had increased class sizes in the last two years amid growing demand for places.

£24m fines for term-time holidays  

Growing numbers of families are budgeting to pay fines for taking their children abroad during term-time because it is cheaper than going away during school holidays.

The latest figures reveal that parents across England and Wales have been fined £24million for failing to send their children to school during the past three years.

The law was changed in 2013 so that families are automatically fined £60 for term-time holidays. But campaigners say the blanket fines have failed to deter parents, and some families take the cost of fines into account when planning holidays. Figures obtained by the BBC under a freedom of information request show 155 local authorities have issued around 400,000 penalties over the past three years.

Craig Lansman, of campaign group Parents Want A Say, said that it made ‘financial sense’ to go abroad during term-time. He added: ‘For example a holiday to Florida during term-time would cost you £700 to £800 per person. But during the school holidays you are looking at paying £1500 to £1900 per person. Even with the £60 fine it is much cheaper.’