UK Edition
Baby boom will lead to 20 per cent more secondary school pupils in ten years, official figures show
A baby boom fuelled by migration will lead to 20 per cent more pupils at secondary schools within ten years, official figures show.
There will be over half a million more secondary-age children by 2026, according to a projection by the Department for Education.
The bulge in student numbers will require the Government to build around 267 average sized secondary schools by 2026, to cope with the rise in demand for places.
The increase is being fuelled by a rising birth rate which has led to growing numbers of pupils making their way through the school system.
The report found that the surge in secondary school students is "primarily because increased births from 2002 onwards means there are now larger numbers entering secondary schools at age 11 than are leaving them at age 16."
“Changes in the school age population are largely driven by the birth rate,” a Dfe report on national pupil projections said.
“Direct immigration of pupils born outside the UK has a very small effect on the school age population.
“However, the birth rate, which has a much larger effect, is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-UK born women, who overall tend to have higher fertility rates.”
The report found that the number of students in state secondary schools is projected to reach over 3.3 million by 2026, which is 19.1 per cent higher than it currently is, an increase of 534,000 more students.
Meanwhile, primary school numbers are projected to be around 100,000 higher in 2026.
A DfE spokesperson said: “We are determined to make sure that there are school places available for every child. Despite an increase of 74,490 in the number of children attending primary schools in England between 2016 and 2017, the average primary class size has seen no change.
“There was an increase in the number of children attending secondary schools of 29,670 because of the increased birthrate in the 2000’s, which has fed into the secondary ages. The average secondary class size has increased slightly from 20.4 in 2016 to 20.8 in 2017."