UK Edition
Net migration is on track to be as high as one million, analysis suggests ahead of the release of official figures this month.
Ministers are braced for net migration, the number entering the UK minus those leaving, to hit a record high, surpassing the previous peak of 504,000 set in the year to June 2022.
Analysis by migration experts suggest the figure could be as high as 997,000 when the official figures are published in two weeks' time. The Home Office fears it could hit one million this year.
The surge is fuelled by a continued sharp increase in non-EU migrants entering the UK to study, work or escape conflict or oppression.
The rise in non-EU migrants has more than compensated for the slump in EU nationals, after Brexit saw the end of freedom of movement for workers from the European Union. If net migration reaches the top estimate of one million, it would be equivalent to four years of net migration before Brexit. Experts have suggested that the figure is likely to be between 650,000 and 997,000.
Pressure on Prime Minister
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures are due to be published on May 25 and will pile pressure on Rishi Sunak over the Government's 2019 pledge to bring down net migration.
Ministers are currently considering plans to stop one-year masters' students bringing over family members, after claims that the system is being abused.
The number of visas issued by the Home Office to the dependents of postgraduate students has risen more than ten fold in just four years, from 12,806 in 2018 to 135,788 in the year to December 2022.
Tory MPs want ministers to go further and tighten controls on visas for lower skilled workers. Former minister Sir John Hayes, chair of the Common Sense group of backbench MPs, said: "Population growth at this level is unsustainable. The Government needs to act immediately and radically to curb migration.
“We should not be adding to the numbers of people we take into the country outside of the key shortage occupations," he added. "It risks damaging productivity by maintaining or even creating a labour intensive economy rather than a high tech, high skilled economy. It displaces investment in skilling Britons and automation.”
It comes amid growing concern within the Government at the record 5.2 million Britons on incapacity benefits, jobseekers allowance or workless universal credit payments.
Cross government effort
At Cabinet this week Mr Sunak ordered ministers take part in a “cross government effort” to reduce the number, which is equivalent to the population of Scotland despite there being more than one million job vacancies.
Analysis by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) forecasts that net migration could hit between 700,000 and 997,000 for the year ending December 2022.
Home Office data show that more than 1.3 million “non-temporary” visas were issued last year for work, study or other reasons. The net migration figure will be determined by the number of people who left the UK.
Karl Williams, CPS senior researcher, said: “If emigration has reverted to pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit patterns, we could see net migration hit the one million mark. This would be at the very top end of our estimates but by no means an implausible figure.”
While net migration could be lower than one million if emigration emulates the pandemic surge, it could continue to rise if more non-EU students decide to take advantage of two-year graduate visas to remain in the UK. “Under the rules as they currently stand, we have moved into a higher immigration paradigm,” he said.
A second analysis suggests net migration for the year ending December 2022 could increase to between 650,000 and 675,000. Rising emigration could see it start to fall into 2024 before settling at around 300,000 annually, after the general election next year.
Overseas students
Overseas students and their dependents have been one of the biggest drivers, increasing by 76 per cent from 354,900 in 2018 to 626,600 in 2022. A government source confirmed a crackdown on masters courses was being discussed saying: “A masters course is nine months of actual working and not meant to be used for dependents.”
A wider review of whether there should also be restrictions on the type and quality of courses is said to be further down the road. However, it is understood Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, believes the current salary threshold for foreign workers is too low.
Skilled workers are eligible for visas if the job pays £26,200, which is 20 per cent below the median UK salary of £33,280. It is understood Home Office analysts have modelled the impact on immigration if they raise that level. A similar approach could also be adopted to the lower salary for shortage occupations, currently £20,480.
A Home Office spokesman said: “The public rightly expect us to control our borders and we remain committed to reducing net migration over time, while ensuring we have the skills our economy needs.”