Number of Channel migrants could hit 85,000 this year

The number of Channel migrants may hit 85,000 this year, the Home Office fears, after the number of crossings doubled in the first two months.

A total of 2,950 people have reached the UK in small boats so far this year, compared with 1,484 in the first two months of 2022.

That puts Channel crossings on course to hit the upper estimate of the Home Office modelling of 85,000, compared with 45,728 in 2022 and 28,526 in 2021.

It will add to pressure on accommodation, with 40,000 migrants currently being housed in 200 hotels after being transferred from the Manston processing centre near Dover, in Kent.

Ministers are considering extra payments to councils to take migrants as well as identifying up to 10,000 places at former military bases, student accommodation and disused holiday camps.

It emerged last week that the backlog of asylum claimants has risen to 166,000 as ministers attempt to quadruple the number of cases processed by staff, double the number of workers to 2,000 and streamline bureaucracy.

However, a government source said: “It is hard to see how we can make huge progress on this when 85,000 are going to cross this year.”

The winter crossings have been fuelled by a surge in Afghans, who have overtaken Albanians as the nation with the most arrivals, and Indians, who have emerged as a growing presence on small boats.

The number of Albanians – many of whom work their way across Europe during the spring and summer – is expected to increase in the coming months.

It comes amid growing unease on the Tory backbenches at the apparent delay in the introduction of Suella Braverman’s small boats Bill, aimed at deterring the surge in migrants.

The legislation will enact Rishi Sunak’s pledge that all migrants who cross the Channel in small boats, or arrive via other illegal routes, will be detained and returned to their home country or to a “safe” third country, such as Rwanda, to claim asylum.

The Bill was originally expected at the end of February but it is now thought unlikely to be unveiled before a bilateral summit between Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, next month to discuss further measures to tackle the small boats crisis.

‘We need this legislation’

Sir John Hayes, a former security minister and the chairman of the backbench Common Sense group, said he was concerned that the legislation had yet to be announced.

“Getting the legislation right seems to be the problem. My argument now is, well, you had a lot of time to do that. There's only so long you can talk about it. And people respect action,” said Sir John, a close ally of Mrs Braverman, the Home Secretary.

“So we need this legislation, without delay to come before the house to be debated to go through Parliament, and then we affect our policy.

“It is vitally important that we pass through the Houses of Parliament further measures, which allow us to process people offshore, to take further action to deal with the problem at source to end the nonsense. The outrage, really, that our border has been routinely breached.

“If you turned up in America without a right to be there without a visa and demanded entry, you’d be arrested. You’d be going from one safe country to another safe country. That’s exactly what’s happening in Britain.”

The busiest day so far this year was Jan 22, when 442 asylum seekers were intercepted at sea and brought into the port at Dover, Kent. The latest crossing came on Friday, when 41 people were escorted into the harbour in one boat by Border Force.

A Home Office spokesman said: “The unacceptable number of people risking their lives by making these dangerous crossings is placing an unprecedented strain on our asylum system.

“Our priority is to stop this illegal trade, and our new Small Boats Operational Command – bolstered by hundreds of extra staff – is working alongside our French partners and other agencies to disrupt the people-smugglers.

“We are also going further by introducing legislation which will ensure that those people arriving in the UK illegally are detained and swiftly removed to another country.”