Putin may target Europe by triggering a new migrant crisis

Nato may have helped to thwart Vladimir Putin’s dream of conquering Ukraine, but that is not likely to put an end to the Kremlin’s wider ambitions. In what security officials have dubbed a new front in the Russian president’s attempts to undermine the West, Moscow is steadily expanding its influence in countries that either have a long history of antagonism towards the free world or that feel Western leaders are not paying sufficient heed to their concerns.

A process that began with Moscow’s military intervention in the Syrian conflict in 2015 has expanded to the extent that Russia has established a footprint in countries such as Egypt, Libya, Madagascar, Mozambique, the Central African Republic and Sudan.

In many instances, this dramatic growth of Russian influence has been achieved with the help of the Wagner Group, Mr Putin’s favourite private militia which, despite being heavily involved in the Ukraine conflict, is also responsible for deepening Moscow’s ties across the globe.

Wagner’s latest target in its quest to further Moscow’s interests is the former French colony of Mali, a strategically important country that lies on the fault line between North and West Africa.

For the past decade, Mali has been at the forefront of a French-led campaign against Islamist terrorist groups, such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State, that have been operating in the vast desert expanse of the Sahel region.

But in what amounts to a classic exercise in Russian opportunism, France’s decision to withdraw its troops from Mali last year has opened the way for Wagner to forge its own relationship with the authorities in Bamako. The group has now established formal military ties with the state.

The extent of Russia’s involvement in Mali was highlighted earlier this month when Russian mercenaries were linked to massacres in which several hundred civilians were reported to have been killed.

With so much of the West’s attention fixed on the Ukraine crisis, it is understandable that there has been less focus on Russia’s efforts to deepen its involvement in regions such as the Middle East and Africa.

Yet, as the Kremlin looks for new ways to counter Western military support for Ukraine, this network of Russian alliances could prove extremely useful for Mr Putin as he seeks to open a new front in his campaign against the West.

The benefits of expanding Russia’s sphere of influence beyond the confines of Europe can be seen in the highly effective propaganda campaign Moscow is conducting to persuade the outside world that the West, not Russia, is to blame for the looming food crisis that many countries, particularly those in the developing world, are likely to suffer as a consequence of the conflict in Ukraine.

Prior to the war, Ukraine was known as the “breadbasket of Europe” because of its status as one of the world’s top grain producers. But Kyiv’s ability to maintain the flow of vital food supplies has been seriously disrupted by Russia’s imposition of a naval blockade in the Black Sea. There are currently 20 million tonnes of grain trapped in Ukrainian storage silos.

Even though Russia is entirely to blame for this disastrous state of affairs, the Kremlin’s propaganda offensive has succeeded in persuading countries such as Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Tunisia, which rely heavily on Black Sea grain for their food supplies, that the West has caused the crisis by provoking the Ukraine conflict in the first place.

Previously, when the US and its allies were the dominant force in the region, it would have been difficult for Moscow to promote such a false narrative. But Western influence has declined so much that those suffering food shortages are increasingly susceptible to Russian propaganda. The only realistic prospect the West has of countering the Kremlin’s lies is to ensure the resumption of grain deliveries, with alternative methods of transport being actively considered by Western governments.

Apart from using its new network of allies to promote its anti-Western narrative, another significant concern is that Mr Putin could exploit Russia’s increased influence in North Africa to initiate a new migrant crisis against Europe.

Moscow’s involvement in creating last year’s crisis on the border of Belarus, where plane-loads of migrants from Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria were flown on Russian planes to Minsk, demonstrates that Mr Putin is not averse to playing politics with the issue. And, given Russia’s presence in North Africa, surely it would not be difficult for him to orchestrate another tide of human misery on the shores of southern Europe in retaliation for Western support of Ukraine.

In the long campaign to defeat Russia, therefore, the West cannot afford just to concentrate its efforts on defeating Moscow in Ukraine. It needs to adopt a far broader strategy, one that has the ability to counter the malign effects of Russian interference throughout the world.