Britain will need 750,000 extra school places within the next TEN years due to a migration-fuelled population boom new figures show

  • Bulge in pupil numbers will continue for next decade, says official forecast
  • By 2025, schools will have faced 16 consecutive years of rising numbers
  • Schools will have to expand buildings or put more pupils into classrooms
  • Between 2009 and 2016, the school system took in an extra 470,000 pupils
  • From 2016 to 2025, the projection says there will be another 10 per cent

Three quarters of a million new school places are needed in England in the next ten years amid a baby boom fuelled by migration.

An official forecast from the Department for Education said a bulge in pupil numbers will continue for the next decade, with 750,000 new places needed by 2025.

By then, schools will have faced 16 consecutive years of rising pupil numbers with many having to expand buildings or squeeze more children into classrooms.

An official forecast from the Department for Education said a bulge in pupil numbers will continue for the next decade, with 750,000 new places needed by 2025 (file photo)

An official forecast from the Department for Education said a bulge in pupil numbers will continue for the next decade, with 750,000 new places needed by 2025 (file photo)

Between 2009 and 2016, the school system already expanded to take in an extra 470,000 pupils.

And from 2016 to 2025, the projection says there will be another 10 per cent of pupils in the state school system, up from about 7.4 million to about 8.1 million.

The increase has been driven by a rising birth rate - and the analysis says this reflects an increasing number of non-UK born mothers, who tend to have bigger families.

The forecast says 'direct immigration of pupils' has had only a very small effect.

Head teachers' leaders have warned that the rising pupil numbers will make it even harder for parents to get their preferred choice of school.

However, the Department for Education says it has committed £7bn to extra places.

The official forecast is used by the government to plan for future numbers of school places, classrooms, buildings and teaching staff.

The projection shows that the population bulge is moving through the secondary years - but that the increase in primary numbers is slowing.

The primary population is now 4.5 million - and the forecast predicts this will rise to 4.68 million in four years' time when it will stabilise.

The annual school census, published last month, showed the pressure on places had increased the average size of a primary school by 30 pupils, equivalent to an extra class.

Between 2009 and 2016, the English school system already expanded to take in an extra 470,000 pupils (file photo)

Between 2009 and 2016, the English school system already expanded to take in an extra 470,000 pupils (file photo)

But the next big increase will be in secondary schools, currently with 2.76 million pupils and forecast to rise to 3.04 million in 2020 and then 3.33 million in 2025.

It means that within the next decade secondary schools will have to create an extra 570,000 places - and these figures do not include post-16 education or sixth forms.

In some areas this year, a third of parents missed out on their first choice primary while 10 per cent did not get any of their choices.

However, overall, 96 per cent received an offer at one of their top three preferred primary schools, while 95 per cent received an offer at one of their top three preferred secondaries.

Alan Smithers, professor of education at the University of Buckingham, said: 'If the government does not get on top of this, the children's education will be badly affected.

'We have already seen primary school children crammed into 'titan' schools, larger classes, and more temporary classrooms.

'But parents now face being less likely to get the secondary school they want, the classes will be larger and, since workload is the main reason for teachers leaving, teacher shortages are likely to become more acute.'

From 2016 to 2025, the projection says there will be another 10 per cent of pupils in the state school system (file photo)

From 2016 to 2025, the projection says there will be another 10 per cent of pupils in the state school system (file photo)

Russell Hobby, leader of the National Association of Head Teachers, told the BBC: 'We are looking at over 750,000 more young people in school education by 2025.

'The government's only clear plan for increasing capacity is to open 500 free schools. Whilst good, new free schools are fine, they are not sufficient.'

A Department for Education spokesperson said: 'Delivering good quality school places is a top priority for this government and the latest figures show that the system continues to work.

'We have already committed £7 billion for school places, which, along with our investment in 500 new free schools, we expect to deliver 600,000 new places by 2021.

'The latest figures show that the system is responding well to growing numbers of pupils – fewer children are being taught in large infant classes, the average primary school class sizes remain stable at 27.1 pupils and the vast majority of parents get places in their preferred schools.

'Our reforms and our academy programme are raising standards for all children with more than 1.4 million more pupils in good or outstanding schools than in 2010. We will continue to invest and work hard to ensure every child has an excellent education that allows them to reach their full potential.'

The increase has been driven by a rising birth rate - and the analysis says this reflects an increasing number of non-UK born mothers (file photo)

The increase has been driven by a rising birth rate - and the analysis says this reflects an increasing number of non-UK born mothers (file photo)

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